Chester · 3:33pm

Queen Charlotte Fillies' Stakes (Listed)

Flat (Turf) 7f GOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 6.7) (Watered) Class 1 4yo+ · F · Listed 8 runners

Tight read Bellarchi just edges it from Circe and Beaujolais Nouveau — top 3 covered by 1 RPR. Field updated — 3 non-runners removed.

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter. On recent form Copacabana Sands sets the standard (RPR 109). By our composite read Bellarchi shapes as the one they all have to beat — goes well on the good, is proven at the trip. In truth this is a tight heat — Bellarchi just shades it from Circe on our read, so each-way thinking and the placepot make sense.

How it played out: Bellarchi won. Our top composite read Bellarchi finished 1st.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over mid at Chester (impact value 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average).

Who's the main danger?

Circe is the chief threat to Bellarchi, with the form figures climbing — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 6

8Bellarchi

1Circe

9Beaujolais Nouveau

7Magic Basma

4Copacabana Sands

5Royalty Bay

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 2

11Brazilian Rose

10Dash Of Azure

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over mid at Chester (impact value 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.25

55% rivals beaten · n=178

Mid draw

IV 1.05

49% rivals beaten · n=193

High draw

IV 0.94

47% rivals beaten · n=261

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Bellarchi Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 8 · Trainer Grant Tuer · Jockey Joanna Mason

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

102 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 102

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

881191 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 6 of 13

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 6 of 21 around 7f

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

2 Circe Races prominently Finished 3

Stall 1 · Trainer Richard Hannon · Jockey Sean Levey

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

101 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 101

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

644791 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 3

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 8 around 7f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Beaujolais Nouveau Races prominently

Stall 9 · Trainer Ben Haslam

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

102 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey %

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 102

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

31112515 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 11

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 3)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

First-time cheekpieces

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

4 Magic Basma Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 7 · Trainer Kevin Ryan · Jockey Tom Eaves

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.

Ability rating

103 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 98

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

453422 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 5

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 3)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Copacabana Sands Races prominently Finished 5

Stall 4 · Trainer Andrew Balding · Jockey Jason Watson

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

109 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 88

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

511465 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 3

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 9 around 7f

FitnessFreshened up — 49 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Royalty Bay Races prominently Finished 7

Stall 5 · Trainer Seb Spencer · Jockey Dale Swift

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

97 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 5% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 97

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

348661 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 5

DistanceHas won around 7f — 1 from 7

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

7 Brazilian Rose Held up, comes late Finished 6

Stall 11 · Trainer Rebecca Menzies · Jockey Kaiya Fraser

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; first-time hood could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

94 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 14%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 94

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

344135 last time ←

DistanceHas won around 7f — 2 from 18

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 14%

DrawDrawn 11 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

First-time hood

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

8 Dash Of Azure Held up, comes late Finished 2

Stall 10 · Trainer Ralph Beckett · Jockey Edward Greatrex

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

104 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 16% · Jockey 15%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

71112712 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 7 around 7f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 15%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.