Chester · 4:45pm

Castillo De Ibiza EBF Fillies' Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

Flat (Turf) 1m 2½f GOOD (Good to firm in places; watered; 6.7) Class 3 3yo+ · F 8 runners

Solid read Likealot is our pick, with Patagonia Girl the main danger.

This class 3 contest over 1m 2½f at Chester is expected to be run at a steady gallop, with Model Yuko, drawn in a favourable low position, likely to control the pace from the front. Low draws have a significant advantage at Chester, with an impact value of 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average. The leading contenders include Likealot, Patagonia Girl, and Model Yuko, all of whom have recent RPRs of 96, 92, and 92 respectively, with Patagonia Girl posing a significant threat to Likealot after dropping in class and having previously won at the course.

How it played out: Hoseki won. Our top composite read Likealot finished 4th.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Model Yuko is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control, and is favourably drawn (low is best over this trip here) — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over mid at Chester (impact value 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average). Model Yuko, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Anyone well-treated?

Patagonia Girl drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Patagonia Girl is the chief threat to Likealot, met trouble last time.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

2Model Yuko

Prominent 5

5Likealot

6Patagonia Girl

8City Queen

7Ciara Pearl

4Hoseki

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 2

3Winged One

1Bearin Up

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over mid at Chester (impact value 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average). Model Yuko, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Low draw

IV 1.25

55% rivals beaten · n=178

Mid draw

IV 1.05

49% rivals beaten · n=193

High draw

IV 0.94

47% rivals beaten · n=261

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Likealot Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 5 · Trainer Ralph Beckett · Jockey Edward Greatrex

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

96 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 16% · Jockey 15%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 96

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

226221 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 2½f

FitnessBack from a long absence — 207 days off, fitness to prove

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 15%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

First-time cheekpiecesLong layoff (207d)

2 Patagonia Girl Races prominently Finished 5

Stall 6 · Trainer Hugo Palmer · Jockey David Probert

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

92 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1311217 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 7

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 6 around 1m 2½f

CourseCourse winner — 2 from 4 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Drops in class (C1→C3)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

3 Model Yuko Likely to lead Finished 7

Stall 2 · Trainer Roger Varian · Jockey Sean D Bowen

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 4, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

92 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 22% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

4313 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2½f (0 from 1)

FitnessBack from a long absence — 296 days off, fitness to prove

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 22%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Drops in class (C2→C3)Long layoff (296d)

4 Winged One Held up, comes late Finished 6

Stall 3 · Trainer Andrew Balding · Jockey Jason Watson

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

90 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 90

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

91582 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2½f (0 from 2)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

5 City Queen Races prominently Finished 3

Stall 8 · Trainer Charlie Appleby · Jockey Toby Moore(7)

A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

84 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 29% · Jockey 18%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 81

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

522131 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 29%, jockey 18%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

6 Bearin Up Held up, comes late Finished 2

Stall 1 · Trainer Tim Easterby · Jockey Duran Fentiman

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

86 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 83

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

573151 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 3 of 9

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2½f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

7 Ciara Pearl Races prominently Finished 8

Stall 7 · Trainer Daniel & Claire Kubler · Jockey Tom Eaves

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

99 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 74

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

136105213 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 3)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 4 of 15 around 1m 2½f

FitnessBack from a long absence — 231 days off, fitness to prove

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

First-time cheekpiecesDrops in class (C1→C3)Long layoff (231d)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

8 Hoseki Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 4 · Trainer William Haggas · Jockey Harry Davies

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

79 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 19% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 79

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

341 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 1 around 1m 2½f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 19%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.