Chester · 4:10pm

Katie O'Brien's Irish Taverns Handicap

Flat (Turf) 7f GOOD (Good to firm in places; watered; 6.7) Class 3 3yo 9 runners

Solid read Astrazar is our pick, with Start Me Up the main danger. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.

This 7f class 3 contest at Chester features a field of 9 runners on good going, with a likely steady gallop controlled by the lone leader. Low draws are favoured at Chester, with an impact value of 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average. Astrazar, who drops in class, is a leading contender with a recent RPR of 98, although Start Me Up, a course winner with a recent RPR of 99, is considered the main danger. Other notable runners include Cool Molly and The Resdev Scholar, with recent RPRs of 93 and 94 respectively.

How it played out: Start Me Up won. Our top composite read Astrazar finished 4th.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Bright Summer is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over mid at Chester (impact value 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average).

Anyone well-treated?

Astrazar drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Start Me Up is the chief threat to Astrazar, with the form figures climbing.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

8Bright Summer

Prominent 4

10Cool Molly

5First Time

3Sovereign Ocean

7Do Bronxs

Mid-pack 1

9The Resdev Scholar

Held up 3

1Astrazar

4Start Me Up

2Daydreama

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over mid at Chester (impact value 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.25

55% rivals beaten · n=178

Mid draw

IV 1.05

49% rivals beaten · n=193

High draw

IV 0.94

47% rivals beaten · n=261

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Astrazar Held up, comes late Finished 4

Stall 1 · Trainer Ed Walker · Jockey Edward Greatrex

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

98 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 15%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 98

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

241197 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 3

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 3 around 7f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 15%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Drops in class (C2→C3)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

2 Start Me Up Held up, comes late Finished 1

Stall 4 · Trainer Richard Spencer · Jockey George Wood

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 4, with the form figures climbing. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

99 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 99

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

3251 last time ←

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

First-time cheekpieces

3 Cool Molly Races prominently Finished 8

Stall 10 · Trainer Ollie Sangster · Jockey David Probert

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

93 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2113156 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 3)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 4 around 7f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Drops in class (C2→C3)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

4 The Resdev Scholar Settles midfield

Stall 9 · Trainer Michael & David Easterby · Jockey Joanna Mason

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

94 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 94

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2433162 last time ←

GroundHas won on good — 1 from 7

DistanceHas won around 7f — 2 from 13

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

5 Daydreama Held up, comes late Finished 7

Stall 2 · Trainer Tim Easterby · Jockey Duran Fentiman

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

98 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 88

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

3372913 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 6

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 4)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

6 First Time Races prominently Finished 3

Stall 5 · Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey · Jockey Ethan Tindall(5)

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

91 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 91

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2212116 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 3)

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

Drops in class (C2→C3)

7 Sovereign Ocean Races prominently Finished 2

Stall 3 · Trainer Marco Botti · Jockey Luke Catton(3)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

89 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 83

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

1616 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 4 around 7f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

8 Do Bronxs Races prominently Finished 5

Stall 7 · Trainer David Loughnane · Jockey David Egan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

92 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 84

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

457572 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 4

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 2)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Drops in class (C2→C3)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

9 Bright Summer Likely to lead Finished 6

Stall 8 · Trainer Andrew Balding · Jockey Jason Watson

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

81 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chester

Last time out

RPR 69

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

418 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 7f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.