Chester · 2:32pm
Flat (Turf)
7½f
GOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 6.7) (Watered)
Class 3
3yo+
4 runners
Tight read
El Nay just edges it from Eagle Bay and Remi Mae — top 3 covered by 44 RPR.
This class 3 contest over 7½f at Chester features a small field of four runners on good going, with a likely steady gallop controlled by the lone leader. Low draws are favoured at Chester, with an impact value of 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average. El Nay, the only confirmed front-runner, is expected to set the pace, while Eagle Bay is considered the main danger, proven at the trip and separated from El Nay by barely a length on the figures, with both horses holding a recent RPR of 87. The race is considered tight, with the top contenders closely matched.
How it played out: Eagle Bay won. Our top composite read El Nay finished 4th.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
El Nay is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over mid at Chester (impact value 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average).
Any unexposed improver?
Eagle Bay is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.
Anyone well-treated?
Remi Mae drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Who's the main danger?
Eagle Bay is the chief threat to El Nay, proven at the trip — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 1
1El Nay
Prominent 1
4Remi Mae
Mid-pack 1
3Eagle Bay
Held up 1
2Albemagic
Pace confidence: 100%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
Low draws are favoured over mid at Chester (impact value 1.25, beating 55% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.25
55% rivals beaten · n=178
Mid draw
IV 1.05
49% rivals beaten · n=193
High draw
IV 0.94
47% rivals beaten · n=261
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
El Nay
Likely to lead
Finished 4
A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 5.
Ability rating
87 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Chester
Last time out
RPR 79
most recent run
Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent
23232
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 7½f (0 from 3)
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%
2
Eagle Bay
Settles midfield
Finished 1
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
87
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 15% · Jockey 5%
strike rate at Chester
Last time out
RPR 87
most recent run
Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent
31
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 7½f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 5%
3
Remi Mae
Races prominently
Finished 3
Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
70 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 15% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Chester
Last time out
RPR 43
most recent run
Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent
72311
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 7½f (0 from 1)
FitnessReturns from 162 days off the track
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 9%
Drops in class (C2→C3)Long layoff (162d)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
4
Albemagic
Held up, comes late
Finished 2
Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.
Ability rating
22
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 3% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Chester
Last time out
RPR 22
most recent run
Last 1 start — oldest to most recent
7
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 7½f (0 from 1)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 3%, jockey 12%
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.