Curragh · 4:30pm

Reserve Ladies Derby Handicap

Flat (Turf) 1m 2f GOOD TO FIRM 4yo+ 13 runners

Solid read Touch The Moon is our pick, with Senna's Girl the main danger.

Diamond Exchange, Ob La Di, Earthwatch all want the lead, pointing to a strong, contested gallop. That favours those who can settle and finish. On recent form Touch The Moon sets the standard (RPR 111), and is suited by the likely pace. Note Clear Quartz for an in-form yard.

How it played out: Fixation won. Our top composite read Touch The Moon finished 4th.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Diamond Exchange, Ob La Di, Earthwatch all want the lead, pointing to a strong, contested gallop. That favours those who can settle and finish.

Does the draw matter?

High draws are favoured over mid at Curragh (impact value 1.25, beating 48% of rivals on average). Diamond Exchange, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Who's the main danger?

Senna's Girl is the chief threat to Touch The Moon, met trouble last time.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 3

2Earthwatch

10Diamond Exchange

5Ob La Di

Prominent 3

12Voice Of Reason

13Fixation

7Great Mover

Mid-pack 1

6Clear Quartz

Held up 6

8Touch The Moon

1Senna's Girl

4Genoah

9Cooley's Mist

11Musical Act

3Rocket Robyn

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

High draws are favoured over mid at Curragh (impact value 1.25, beating 48% of rivals on average). Diamond Exchange, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Low draw

IV 1.08

53% rivals beaten · n=519

Mid draw

IV 1.16

49% rivals beaten · n=545

High draw

IV 1.25

48% rivals beaten · n=694

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Touch The Moon Held up, comes late Finished 4

Stall 8 · Trainer William Durkan · Jockey Ms K M Ryan(7)

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6.

Ability rating

111 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 0%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 87

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2361213 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 3

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 0%

DrawDrawn 8 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

2 Senna's Girl Held up, comes late

Stall 1 · Trainer Diego Dias · Jockey Robyn Donaghue-Leahy(7)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; first-time tongue-tie+cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

102 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 15%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 102

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

22143135 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 15%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

First-time tongue-tie+cheekpieces

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

3 Voice Of Reason Races prominently Finished 10

Stall 12 · Trainer William Delahunty · Jockey Sadhbh Tormey(7)

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

99 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 23% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 99

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

122598 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 2)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 23%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 12 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

4 Earthwatch Likely to lead Finished 11

Stall 2 · Trainer Denis Gerard Hogan · Jockey Miss A B O'Connor(3)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

103 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 0%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 103

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

168944– last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 4)

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 3)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 0%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Genoah Held up, comes late Finished 2

Stall 4 · Trainer M D O'Callaghan · Jockey Siobhan Rutledge

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

94 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 73

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

14411910 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 3 of 8 around 1m 2f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 4 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Clear Quartz Settles midfield Finished 8

Stall 6 · Trainer Mark Fahey · Jockey Miss N Fahey(7)

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

87 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 100%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 83

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

8111382 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 100%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Stable hot (2/5, 40%)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

7 Fixation Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 13 · Trainer J P Murtagh · Jockey Miss Georgie Benson(7)

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6.

Ability rating

79 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 0%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 77

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

261227 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 1m 2f

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 0%

DrawDrawn 13 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

8 Diamond Exchange Likely to lead Finished 7

Stall 10 · Trainer Mrs John Harrington · Jockey Miss S A Carter(7)

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

83 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 0%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 72

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

631318 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 5 around 1m 2f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 0%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

First-time cheekpieces

9 Great Mover Races prominently Finished 6

Stall 7 · Trainer W McCreery · Jockey Megan Telford-Kelly(7)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

81 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 0%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 70

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1256632 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 1m 2f

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 0%

DrawDrawn 7 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

10 Cooley's Mist Held up, comes late Finished 3

Stall 9 · Trainer H Rogers · Jockey Orla Tynan(7)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

70 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 3% · Jockey 20%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 70

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1374783 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 4)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 3%, jockey 20%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

11 Musical Act Held up, comes late Finished 12

Stall 11 · Trainer Ciaran Murphy · Jockey Nicola Burns(5)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

83 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 54

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

874567 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 11 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

12 Rocket Robyn Held up, comes late Finished 9

Stall 3 · Trainer Martin Hassett · Jockey Ms A M Connolly(7)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

76 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 0%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 49

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

9298106 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 0%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

First-time tongue-tie

13 Ob La Di Likely to lead Finished 5

Stall 5 · Trainer J P Murtagh · Jockey Jessica Maye(7)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

78 regressing

recent best — career high 89 in 2025

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 40

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

512121648 last time ←

DistanceHas won around 1m 2f — 1 from 9

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.