Curragh · 3:55pm

Paddy Power Pretty Polly Stakes (Fillies' And Mares' Group 1)

Flat (Turf) 1m 2f GOOD TO FIRM Class 1 3yo+ · F & M · Group 1 8 runners

Solid read Estrange is our pick, with Thundering On the main danger. Field updated — 2 non-runners removed.

The Curragh hosts an 8-runner class 1 contest over 1m 2f on firm turf, with a likely contested lead and even gallop. High draws are favoured at this track, beating 48% of rivals on average with an impact value of 1.25. Estrange and Thundering On, who both met trouble in their last outings, are prominent in the betting, with the latter considered the main danger to the former, while One Look and Red Letter also feature among the leading contenders. Carolina Jetstream and Qilin Queen are expected to contribute to a solid pace. The field appears to have a fair favourite in Estrange, but with several live dangers, including Thundering On, who boasts a recent RPR of 133.

How it played out: Estrange won. Our top composite read Estrange finished 1st.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Carolina Jetstream and Qilin Queen should ensure an even gallop.

Does the draw matter?

High draws are favoured over mid at Curragh (impact value 1.25, beating 48% of rivals on average).

Who's the main danger?

Thundering On is the chief threat to Estrange, met trouble last time.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 2

1Carolina Jetstream

4Qilin Queen

Prominent 4

7Thundering On

10One Look

5Wemightakedlongway

2Beautify

Mid-pack 1

3Red Letter

Held up 1

6Estrange

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

High draws are favoured over mid at Curragh (impact value 1.25, beating 48% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.08

53% rivals beaten · n=519

Mid draw

IV 1.16

49% rivals beaten · n=545

High draw

IV 1.25

48% rivals beaten · n=694

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Estrange Held up, comes late Finished 1

Stall 6 · Trainer David O'Meara · Jockey Daniel Tudhope

Reliable and on the up — placed in 6 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

127 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 127

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

111221 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 3

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 3 around 1m 2f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

2 Thundering On Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 7 · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 5, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

133 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 133

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

42211 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 1 around 1m 2f

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

3 One Look Races prominently Finished 2

Stall 10 · Trainer P Twomey · Jockey James Doyle

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

116 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 19% · Jockey 24%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 104

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

261294 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 2f

CourseCourse winner — 2 from 5 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 19%, jockey 24%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

First-time cheekpieces

Weakened in the closing stages last time

4 Red Letter Settles midfield Finished 3

Stall 3 · Trainer G M Lyons · Jockey Colin Keane

Reliable and on the up — placed in 6 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

111 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 17%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 111

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

211332 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 3)

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 3 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 17%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

5 Wemightakedlongway Races prominently Finished 5

Stall 5 · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Jockey J M Sheridan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

112 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 95

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

426734 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 2f

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

6 Carolina Jetstream Likely to lead Finished 8

Stall 1 · Trainer Robson De Aguiar · Jockey Donagh O'Connor

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

106 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 25% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 96

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1141026 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 1m 2f

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 25%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

7 Beautify Races prominently Finished 6

Stall 2 · Trainer A P O'Brien · Jockey Ryan Moore

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

107 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 22% · Jockey 14%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 102

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

312886 last time ←

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 4 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 22%, jockey 14%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

8 Qilin Queen Likely to lead Finished 7

Stall 4 · Trainer Ed Walker · Jockey Shane Foley

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6.

Ability rating

104 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 83

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

123184 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 2 of 5

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 1m 2f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.