Newcastle (AW) · 4:23pm

Pertemps Network EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Flat (AW) 5f TAPETA: STANDARD TO SLOW Class 2 2yo 7 runners

Clear read Barnaby Rudge stands out on our figures.

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter. On recent form Barnaby Rudge sets the standard (RPR 82). Note Barnaby Rudge for an in-form yard. Barnaby Rudge rates the clear standout and is taken to confirm. Pace read is partial here (limited run-style history), so treat the shape call with caution.

How it played out: Barnaby Rudge won. Our top composite read Barnaby Rudge finished 1st.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over sprint at Newcastle (AW) (impact value 1.16, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Barnaby Rudge is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 4

1Barnaby Rudge

2Bacha

5Papercut

3Knock Three Times

Mid-pack 2

6Taj Mahal Palace

4Flashing Star

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 29%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over sprint at Newcastle (AW) (impact value 1.16, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.16

49% rivals beaten · n=645

Mid draw

IV 0.91

48% rivals beaten · n=727

High draw

IV 1.11

52% rivals beaten · n=871

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Barnaby Rudge Races prominentlyest Finished 1

Stall 1 · Trainer James Fanshawe · Jockey Daniel Muscutt

Holds solid claims on these figures. First-time hood could sharpen him up; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 16% · Jockey 13%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 82

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

1 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 1 around 5f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 13%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

First-time hoodStable hot (5/22, 23%)

2 Bacha Races prominentlyest Finished 5

Stall 2 · Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey · Jockey Warren Fentiman

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

—

most recent run

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 13.0% on standard

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

3 Hell Of A Spin Run-style unknown Finished 2

Stall 7 · Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley · Jockey Mikey Sheehy

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 19% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

—

most recent run

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 14.8% on standard

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 19%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.11)

4 Papercut Races prominentlyest Finished 3

Stall 5 · Trainer Andrew Balding · Jockey P J McDonald

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 14%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

—

most recent run

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 14.1% on standard

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 14%

DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.11)

5 Taj Mahal Palace Settles midfieldest

Stall 6 · Trainer Brian Ellison · Jockey Connor Beasley

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

—

most recent run

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 18.1% on standard

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.11)

6 Knock Three Times Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 3 · Trainer Jamie Osborne · Jockey Saffie Osborne

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 66

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

22 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.91)

7 Flashing Star Settles midfield Finished 6

Stall 4 · Trainer Mark Walford · Jockey Dougie Costello

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 62

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

6 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 18.0% on standard

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

FitnessFreshened up — 54 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.91)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.