Newcastle (AW) · 3:15pm

JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)

Flat (AW) 2m 0½f TAPETA: STANDARD TO SLOW Class 2 3yo+ 20 runners

Tight read Tashkhan just edges it from Zanndabad and Prydwen — top 3 covered by 15 RPR.

This class 2 flat race at Newcastle's all-weather track features 20 runners over a distance of 2m 0½f on standard going. The pace is likely to be contested, with Moon Over Miami and Gentleman Joe expected to contribute to an even gallop. Mid draws are favoured at this track, with an impact value of 1.48, beating 53% of rivals on average, and the top of the race is very close, with Tashkhan and Zanndabad, who is donning first-time headgear, closely matched on figures, separated by barely a length. Tashkhan, Zanndabad, Prydwen, and Elysian Flame are the leading contenders, with recent RPRs of 126, 139, 106, and 104 respectively.

How it played out: Align The Stars won. Our top composite read Tashkhan finished 20th.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Moon Over Miami and Gentleman Joe should ensure an even gallop.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over route at Newcastle (AW) (impact value 1.48, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Kirchner is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Who's the main danger?

Zanndabad is the chief threat to Tashkhan, with first-time headgear — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 2

19Moon Over Miami

16Gentleman Joe

Prominent 7

5Tashkhan

15Prydwen

10Elysian Flame

17Bahadur

9Synergism

14Align The Stars

20Tribal Star

Mid-pack 2

1Spirit Mixer

2Circus Of Rome

Held up 9

18Zanndabad

6Team Player

13Asgard's Captain

3Blazeon Five

7Ride The Thunder

12Kirchner

8Saint Etienne

4Dancing In Paris

11Aqwaam

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over route at Newcastle (AW) (impact value 1.48, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 0.69

46% rivals beaten · n=148

Mid draw

IV 1.48

53% rivals beaten · n=171

High draw

IV 1.13

51% rivals beaten · n=209

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Tashkhan Races prominently Finished 20

Stall 5 · Trainer Brian Ellison · Jockey Paul Mulrennan

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.

Ability rating

126 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 106

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1013534 last time ←

GroundYet to win on standard (0 from 4)

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 10)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Zanndabad Held up, comes late Finished 8

Stall 18 · Trainer A J Martin · Jockey N G McCullagh

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

139 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 4%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 91

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

4911108 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 5)

Course1 run at the track without winning

FitnessFreshened up — 50 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 4%

DrawDrawn 18 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

First-time tongue-tie

3 Prydwen Races prominently Finished 7

Stall 15 · Trainer George Scott · Jockey Darragh Keenan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

106 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 17% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 106

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

896821 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 6 of 18

DistanceHas won around 2m 0½f — 2 from 12

Course1 run at the track without winning

FitnessFreshened up — 48 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 15 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

4 Elysian Flame Races prominently Finished 16

Stall 10 · Trainer Samantha & Jacqueline Coward · Jockey Rhys Elliott(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

104 improving

recent best — career high 120 in 2021

This track

Trainer 0% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 103

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

354154 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 3 of 7 around 2m 0½f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 0%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 10 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

First-time cheekpieces

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Team Player Held up, comes late Finished 9

Stall 6 · Trainer Ewan Whillans · Jockey Greg Fairley

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

102 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 5% · Jockey 3%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 102

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

313115 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 2 of 5

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 1 around 2m 0½f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here

FitnessFreshened up — 50 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 3%

DrawDrawn 6 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

6 Bahadur Races prominently Finished 5

Stall 17 · Trainer S Woods · Jockey William Buick

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

101 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 25%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 94

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1165110 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 3 of 4

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 1 around 2m 0½f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 25%

DrawDrawn 17 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

7 Synergism Races prominently Finished 3

Stall 9 · Trainer Sir Mark Prescott Bt · Jockey Luke Morris

A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

96 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 18% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 96

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

112531 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 3 of 7

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 4 around 2m 0½f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 18%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 9 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

8 Asgard's Captain Held up, comes late Finished 12

Stall 13 · Trainer Dylan Cunha · Jockey Saffie Osborne

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

103 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 103

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

513414 last time ←

GroundYet to win on standard (0 from 4)

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 1)

Course4 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 13 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

9 Blazeon Five Held up, comes late Finished 14

Stall 3 · Trainer Alan King · Jockey Callum Rodriguez

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

97 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 16%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

411162 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 4 of 13

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 6 of 19 around 2m 0½f

Course1 run at the track without winning

FitnessFreshened up — 71 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 16%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

Stable hot (3/7, 43%)Fresh (71d)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

10 Align The Stars Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 14 · Trainer Charlie Johnston · Jockey Daniel Muscutt

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

104 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 13%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

4104126 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 1 of 3

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 2m 0½f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 13%

DrawDrawn 14 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

First-time cheekpieces

Weakened in the closing stages last time

11 Spirit Mixer Settles midfield Finished 19

Stall 1 · Trainer Andrew Balding · Jockey Rob Hornby

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

100 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

5714310 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 2 of 9

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 4 of 19 around 2m 0½f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

12 Moon Over Miami Likely to lead Finished 13

Stall 19 · Trainer Ralph Beckett · Jockey Hector Crouch

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

100 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 16% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

4615114 last time ←

GroundYet to win on standard (0 from 3)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 2m 0½f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 19 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

13 Ride The Thunder Held up, comes late Finished 6

Stall 7 · Trainer Roger Varian · Jockey Ray Dawson

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

96 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 22% · Jockey 14%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 95

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

214423 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 22%, jockey 14%

DrawDrawn 7 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

14 Kirchner Held up, comes late Finished 2

Stall 12 · Trainer James Owen · Jockey Cieren Fallon

Holds solid claims on these figures. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 14%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

75 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 16.9% on standard

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 14%

DrawDrawn 12 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

First-time cheekpieces

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

15 Circus Of Rome Settles midfield Finished 10

Stall 2 · Trainer Richard Hughes · Jockey Finley Marsh

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

105 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 79

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1146511 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 2 of 5

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

16 Saint Etienne Held up, comes late Finished 4

Stall 8 · Trainer Brian Ellison · Jockey Connor Beasley

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

99 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 87

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

191047 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 8 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

First-time tongue-tie

17 Dancing In Paris Held up, comes late Finished 15

Stall 4 · Trainer Ian Williams · Jockey Dougie Costello

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

100 regressing

recent best — career high 124 in 2024

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 72

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2824129 last time ←

GroundHas won on standard — 1 from 7

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 4)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 4 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

18 Aqwaam Held up, comes late Finished 17

Stall 11 · Trainer Ian Williams · Jockey Mikey Sheehy

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 86

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

9 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 16.8% on standard

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 11 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

19 Gentleman Joe Likely to lead Finished 18

Stall 16 · Trainer Matt Crawley · Jockey Warren Fentiman(3)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

114 regressing

recent best — career high 125 in 2023

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 45

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

694PU710 last time ←

GroundHas won on standard — 1 from 7

DistanceHas won around 2m 0½f — 1 from 14

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 16 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

20 Tribal Star Races prominently Finished 11

Stall 20 · Trainer Adrian McGuinness · Jockey Adam Caffrey

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

97 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 50

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

334439 last time ←

GroundHas won on standard — 2 from 13

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 8)

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 20 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

First-time cheekpieces

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.