Newcastle (AW) · 2:40pm

JenningsBet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation Race For Northumberland Plate) (GBBPlus Race)

Flat (AW) 2m 0½f TAPETA: STANDARD TO SLOW Class 2 3yo+ 20 runners

Solid read Charging Thunder is our pick, with Boxing Great the main danger.

Sax Appeal, Savrola, Arc Zoosve all want the lead, pointing to a strong, contested gallop. That favours those who can settle and finish. On recent form Believitanducan sets the standard (RPR 125). By our composite read Charging Thunder shapes as the one they all have to beat — goes well on the standard, is proven at the trip. Note Chemistry for an in-form yard.

How it played out: Believitanducan won. Our top composite read Charging Thunder finished 11th.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Sax Appeal, Savrola, Arc Zoosve all want the lead, pointing to a strong, contested gallop. That favours those who can settle and finish.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over route at Newcastle (AW) (impact value 1.48, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Premiere Ligne is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Who's the main danger?

Boxing Great is the chief threat to Charging Thunder, with the form figures climbing.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 5

2Sax Appeal

7Treasure Islands

20Arc Zoosve

6Savrola

14Clansman

Prominent 7

16Chemistry

10Believitanducan

9St Faz

4Brosna Town

11Shrimp Shady

5Hermetic

15Fast Fred

Mid-pack 3

12Charging Thunder

8Premiere Ligne

19Day Trader

Held up 5

1Boxing Great

17Alphonse Le Grande

18Artisan Dancer

13Laafy

3Haveyoumissedme

Pace confidence: 95%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over route at Newcastle (AW) (impact value 1.48, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 0.69

46% rivals beaten · n=148

Mid draw

IV 1.48

53% rivals beaten · n=171

High draw

IV 1.13

51% rivals beaten · n=209

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Charging Thunder Settles midfield Finished 11

Stall 12 · Trainer James Owen · Jockey Mason Paetel(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

110 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 110

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

7512274 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 3 of 12

DistanceHas won around 2m 0½f — 2 from 16

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 12 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

First-time cheekpieces

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Boxing Great Held up, comes late Finished 8

Stall 1 · Trainer Karl Thornton · Jockey Adam Caffrey

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

106 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 106

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

355186 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 1 of 4

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 2m 0½f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

First-time tongue-tie

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Chemistry Races prominently Finished 19

Stall 16 · Trainer Jennie Candlish · Jockey Lewis Edmunds

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

109 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 109

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

484192 last time ←

GroundYet to win on standard (0 from 3)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 2m 0½f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 16 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Stable hot (4/17, 24%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

4 Believitanducan Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 10 · Trainer Alan King · Jockey William Buick

A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

125 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 25%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 84

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

216311 last time ←

GroundYet to win on standard (0 from 3)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 4 of 7 around 2m 0½f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 25%

DrawDrawn 10 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

Stable hot (3/7, 43%)

5 St Faz Races prominently Finished 9

Stall 9 · Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley · Jockey Mikey Sheehy

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

91 improving

recent best — career high 125 in 2025

This track

Trainer 19% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 91

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

117152 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 3 of 4

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 4 of 21 around 2m 0½f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 19%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 9 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Premiere Ligne Settles midfield Finished 7

Stall 8 · Trainer Hughie Morrison · Jockey Jack Nicholls(5)

Holds solid claims on these figures. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

96 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 14.1% on standard

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 8 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

First-time tongue-tieStable hot (2/5, 40%)

7 Alphonse Le Grande Held up, comes late Finished 5

Stall 17 · Trainer A J Martin · Jockey Sam Coen(5)

Holds solid claims on these figures. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

98 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 85

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

58671312 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 4 of 14

DistanceHas won around 2m 0½f — 1 from 12

FitnessFreshened up — 50 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 17 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

First-time tongue-tie

8 Brosna Town Races prominently Finished 16

Stall 4 · Trainer Jessica Bedi · Jockey Ray Dawson

Holds solid claims on these figures. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

101 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 0% · Jockey 14%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2335647 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 4)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 0%, jockey 14%

DrawDrawn 4 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

First-time tongue-tie

Weakened in the closing stages last time

9 Sax Appeal Likely to lead Finished 3

Stall 2 · Trainer Charlie Johnston · Jockey Daniel Muscutt

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. First-time blinkers could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

92 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 13%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 91

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

383653 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 8 of 32

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 4 of 16 around 2m 0½f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 3 here

FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 6 days

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 13%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

First-time blinkers

Weakened in the closing stages last time

10 Artisan Dancer Held up, comes late Finished 18

Stall 18 · Trainer Charlie Johnston · Jockey Cieren Fallon

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

94 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 14%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 83

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

71610412 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 7 of 34

DistanceHas won around 2m 0½f — 3 from 20

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 14%

DrawDrawn 18 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

11 Treasure Islands Likely to lead Finished 12

Stall 7 · Trainer Tim Easterby · Jockey David Allan

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

93 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

481231 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 4 around 2m 0½f

FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 5 days

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 7 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

12 Shrimp Shady Races prominently Finished 6

Stall 11 · Trainer Andrew Balding · Jockey Rob Hornby

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

92 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

244121 last time ←

GroundHas won on standard — 1 from 7

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 1)

FitnessFreshened up — 50 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 11 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

13 Laafy Held up, comes lateest Finished 10

Stall 13 · Trainer Brian Ellison · Jockey Connor Beasley

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. First-time visor could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

98 regressing

recent best — career high 109 in 2020

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 82

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

48713811 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 13 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.48)

First-time visor

14 Arc Zoosve Likely to lead Finished 20

Stall 20 · Trainer Neil King · Jockey Dougie Costello

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

84 improving

recent best — career high 99 in 2025

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 84

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

251111 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 5 of 17

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 5 of 10 around 2m 0½f

FitnessFreshened up — 46 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 20 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

First-time cheekpieces

15 Day Trader Settles midfield Finished 14

Stall 19 · Trainer A J Martin · Jockey N G McCullagh

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

112 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 4%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 64

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

14126101116 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 2m 0½f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 4%

DrawDrawn 19 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

16 Hermetic Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 5 · Trainer Ian Williams · Jockey Luke Morris

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 82

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

46 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 16.8% on standard

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

17 Savrola Likely to lead Finished 15

Stall 6 · Trainer Dianne Sayer · Jockey Paul Mulrennan

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

87 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 76

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2212117 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 2 of 7

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 2m 0½f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 6 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

18 Haveyoumissedme Held up, comes late Finished 2

Stall 3 · Trainer Iain Jardine · Jockey Andrew Mullen

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

78 improving

recent best — career high 94 in 2022

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 76

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

635273 last time ←

GroundHas won on standard — 2 from 22

DistanceHas won around 2m 0½f — 1 from 13

Course6 runs at the track without winning

FitnessFreshened up — 57 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.69)

Stable hot (9/36, 25%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

19 Fast Fred Races prominently Finished 13

Stall 15 · Trainer Phillip Makin · Jockey Sam James

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

82 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 79

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

621284 last time ←

GroundProven on standard — won 2 of 10

DistanceUnproven at 2m 0½f (0 from 4)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 15 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

First-time cheekpieces

Weakened in the closing stages last time

20 Clansman Likely to lead Finished 17

Stall 14 · Trainer Liam Bailey · Jockey Rhys Elliott(5)

Reliable and on the up — placed in 6 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

78 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Newcastle (AW)

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

321331 last time ←

GroundHas won on standard — 2 from 12

DistanceHas won around 2m 0½f — 1 from 7

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 4 here

FitnessFreshened up — 59 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 14 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.