Curragh · 2:45pm

Neville Homes Summer Fillies Handicap (Premier Handicap)

Flat (Turf) 7f GOOD TO FIRM 3yo+ · F 12 runners

Clear read Meriden stands out on our figures.

Vega's Muse is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control, and is favourably drawn (mid is best over this trip here) — a powerful setup if left alone up front. On recent form Meriden sets the standard (RPR 123). Meriden rates the clear standout and is taken to confirm.

How it played out: Meriden won. Our top composite read Meriden finished 1st.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Does the draw matter?

High draws are favoured over mid at Curragh (impact value 1.25, beating 48% of rivals on average).

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

8Vega's Muse

Prominent 4

12Greydreambeliever

11Mallavelly

1Bint Majestic Roi

5Glory To Be

Mid-pack 2

9Orchidaceae

6Aviatrice

Held up 5

4Meriden

2Rion Rubette

3Fingerpaint

10Nancy J

7She's Too Kool

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

High draws are favoured over mid at Curragh (impact value 1.25, beating 48% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.08

53% rivals beaten · n=519

Mid draw

IV 1.16

49% rivals beaten · n=545

High draw

IV 1.25

48% rivals beaten · n=694

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Meriden Held up, comes late Finished 1

Stall 4 · Trainer Denis Gerard Hogan · Jockey Chris Hayes

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

123 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 123

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

6106111 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 3 of 3 around 7f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 4 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

2 Greydreambeliever Races prominently Finished 9

Stall 12 · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

101 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 101

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

332262 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 4

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 5)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 12 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

3 Rion Rubette Held up, comes late Finished 10

Stall 2 · Trainer Michael Butler · Jockey Paddy Harnett(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

98 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 3% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 98

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

847811 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 3 of 9 around 7f

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 3%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

4 Orchidaceae Settles midfield Finished 6

Stall 9 · Trainer A Oliver · Jockey W J Lee

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

98 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 81

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

16121814 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 4 around 7f

Course1 run at the track without winning

FitnessBack from a long absence — 287 days off, fitness to prove

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Long layoff (287d)

5 Aviatrice Settles midfield Finished 3

Stall 6 · Trainer David Marnane · Jockey Luke McAteer

A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 6.

Ability rating

103 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 85

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

3211310 last time ←

DistanceHas won around 7f — 1 from 6

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Mallavelly Races prominently Finished 2

Stall 11 · Trainer G M Lyons · Jockey Gary Carroll

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

92 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 72

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1163107 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 3

DistanceHas won around 7f — 1 from 7

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 11 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

First-time tongue-tie

Weakened in the closing stages last time

7 Fingerpaint Held up, comes late

Stall 3 · Trainer D K Weld · Jockey Colin Keane

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

100 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 17%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 83

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

1377 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 7f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 17%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

8 Bint Majestic Roi Races prominently Finished 7

Stall 1 · Trainer Andrew Slattery · Jockey Andrew Slattery

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

85 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 83

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

154117 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 3)

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 3 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

9 Glory To Be Races prominently Finished 5

Stall 5 · Trainer M C Grassick · Jockey Wayne Lordan

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. First-time blinkers could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

82 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 71

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1102179 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 7f

Course5 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

First-time blinkers

Weakened in the closing stages last time

10 Vega's Muse Likely to lead Finished 8

Stall 8 · Trainer Mrs John Harrington · Jockey Shane Foley

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

85 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 65

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

6131712 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 4)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 8 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

First-time cheekpieces

Weakened in the closing stages last time

11 Nancy J Held up, comes late Finished 4

Stall 10 · Trainer J P Murtagh · Jockey Ben Coen

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

89 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 49

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

8558313 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 7f

Course3 runs at the track without winning

FitnessFreshened up — 85 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.25)

Fresh (85d)

12 She's Too Kool Held up, comes late Finished 11

Stall 7 · Trainer Ms Claire O'Connell · Jockey Rory Cleary

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

85 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 4% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Curragh

Last time out

RPR 62

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

5PU3645 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 3)

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 4%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 7 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.