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Curragh · 2:15pm

Jebel Ali Racecourse And Stables Anglesey Stakes (Group 3)

Flat (Turf) 6½f GOOD TO FIRM Class 1 2yo · Group 3 5 runners
Solid read Confucius is our pick, with Dandyman Dan the main danger. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.
Confucius is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front. On recent form Dandyman Dan sets the standard (RPR 104). By our composite read Confucius shapes as the one they all have to beat — is proven at the trip.
How it played out: Ballinea Star won. Our top composite read Confucius finished 3rd.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
Confucius is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over sprint at Curragh (impact value 1.38, beating 48% of rivals on average).
Any unexposed improver?
Confucius is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.
Who's the main danger?
Dandyman Dan is the chief threat to Confucius, met trouble last time.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

2Confucius

Prominent 3

4Dandyman Dan
3Immortal Guard
1Ballinea Star

Mid-pack 1

5The Harv

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 80%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over sprint at Curragh (impact value 1.38, beating 48% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.38
48% rivals beaten · n=373

Mid draw

IV 1.06
48% rivals beaten · n=397

High draw

IV 1.02
53% rivals beaten · n=494
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read Confucius Likely to lead Finished 3
Stall 2 · Trainer A P O'Brien · Jockey Ryan Moore

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating
101 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 22% · Jockey 14%
strike rate at Curragh
Last time out
RPR 101
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
216 last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 16.8% on firm
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 6½f
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 22%, jockey 14%
2 Dandyman Dan Races prominently Finished 4
Stall 4 · Trainer David Evans · Jockey J F Egan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating
104 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 11%
strike rate at Curragh
Last time out
RPR 104
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
159 last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 13.2% on firm
DistanceUnproven at 6½f (0 from 1)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 11%
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
3 Immortal Guard Races prominently Finished 2
Stall 3 · Trainer Robson De Aguiar · Jockey W J Lee

Holds solid claims on these figures. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating
90
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 25% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Curragh
Last time out
RPR 90
most recent run
Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent
13 last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 22.0% on firm
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 6½f
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 25%, jockey 12%
Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit
4 The Harv Settles midfieldest Finished 5
Stall 5 · Trainer M D O'Callaghan · Jockey Colin Keane

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating
86
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 13% · Jockey 17%
strike rate at Curragh
Last time out
RPR 82
most recent run
Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent
114 last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 6½f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 17%
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
5 Ballinea Star Races prominently Finished 1
Stall 1 · Trainer Robson De Aguiar · Jockey Donagh O'Connor

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating
76 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 25% · Jockey 10%
strike rate at Curragh
Last time out
RPR 76
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
541 last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.6% on firm
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 6½f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 25%, jockey 10%

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.