York · 1:20pm

Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Flat (Turf) 6f GOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: Overall 6.1; Home straight: Far side 5.9, Centre 6.1, Stands' side 6.0) (Watered) Class 2 2yo 12 runners

Clear read Furturra stands out on our figures.

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter. On recent form Furturra sets the standard (RPR 97). Furturra rates the clear standout and is taken to confirm.

How it played out: Sirocco Sands won. Our top composite read Furturra finished 2nd.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over sprint at York (impact value 1.32, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Sirocco Sands is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 7

2Furturra

1Casino Star

6Cagney

4Mezzo Forte

3Washington Royale

11Aodhan

10Rbflying

Mid-pack 1

9Sirocco Sands

Held up 4

7Sue's Last Chance

5Yorkshire Dream

12Bigalo

8Spirit Of Mary

Pace confidence: 58%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over sprint at York (impact value 1.32, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.32

53% rivals beaten · n=275

Mid draw

IV 1.17

53% rivals beaten · n=294

High draw

IV 0.97

45% rivals beaten · n=367

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Furturra Races prominently Finished 2

Stall 2 · Trainer Tim Easterby · Jockey Sean Kirrane

A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 6.

Ability rating

97 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

723121 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 7

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 6f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

2 Sirocco Sands Settles midfield Finished 1

Stall 9 · Trainer David Marnane · Jockey Robbie Colgan

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 89

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

24 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 19.4% on good

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

3 Casino Star Races prominentlyest Finished 6

Stall 1 · Trainer K R Burke · Jockey Clifford Lee

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 13%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 83

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

2 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 13%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

4 Sue's Last Chance Held up, comes late Finished 8

Stall 7 · Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey · Jockey Oisin Orr

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

65 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 2)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 7 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

5 Cagney Races prominentlyest Finished 9

Stall 6 · Trainer Kevin Ryan · Jockey Shane Gray

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at York

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

6 Mezzo Forte Races prominentlyest Finished 5

Stall 4 · Trainer William Haggas · Jockey Tom Marquand

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 19% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at York

Last time out

—

most recent run

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 17.0% on good

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 19%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 4 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

7 Washington Royale Races prominentlyest Finished 4

Stall 3 · Trainer Michael Appleby · Jockey Alistair Rawlinson

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at York

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

8 Yorkshire Dream Held up, comes late Finished 11

Stall 5 · Trainer Ben Haslam · Jockey Cam Hardie

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 60

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

57 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

9 Aodhan Races prominentlyest Finished 10

Stall 11 · Trainer Rebecca Menzies · Jockey David Nolan

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 59

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

8 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 11 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

10 Rbflying Races prominently Finished 3

Stall 10 · Trainer Tim Easterby · Jockey Ben Robinson

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 52

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

65 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

11 Bigalo Held up, comes late Finished 7

Stall 12 · Trainer Roger Fell · Jockey Oisin McSweeney

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 53

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

69 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 12 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

12 Spirit Of Mary Held up, comes late

Stall 8 · Trainer Ben Haslam

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

47 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey %

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 42

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

974 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%

DrawDrawn 8 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.