York · 2:25pm

Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dash Handicap

Flat (Turf) 5f GOOD (Good to firm in places; watered; Overall 6.1; Home straight: Far side 5.9, Centre 6.1, Stands' side 6.0) Class 2 3yo 15 runners

Clear read Naana's Shadow stands out on our figures.

Fortification, Mighty Magnus, Naana's Shadow all want the lead, pointing to a strong, contested gallop. That favours those who can settle and finish. On recent form Naana's Shadow sets the standard (RPR 115). Naana's Shadow rates the clear standout and is taken to confirm.

How it played out: Naana's Shadow won. Our top composite read Naana's Shadow finished 1st.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Fortification, Mighty Magnus, Naana's Shadow all want the lead, pointing to a strong, contested gallop. That favours those who can settle and finish.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over sprint at York (impact value 1.32, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Anyone well-treated?

Shes Got A Brother drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 7

5Naana's Shadow

14Shes Got A Brother

8Alfa Duplicate

9Front Line Fury

3Hanney Girl

11Fortification

4Mighty Magnus

Prominent 7

1Schrodinger's Cat

12Boston Dan

6Our Cody

2Allsortz

10Stargazed

7Manatee Mehmas

13Go Vince Go

Mid-pack 1

15Rotokura Belle

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over sprint at York (impact value 1.32, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.32

53% rivals beaten · n=275

Mid draw

IV 1.17

53% rivals beaten · n=294

High draw

IV 0.97

45% rivals beaten · n=367

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Naana's Shadow Likely to lead Finished 1

Stall 5 · Trainer Katie Scott · Jockey Oisin Murphy

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

115 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 5% · Jockey 19%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 115

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

216131 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 3

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 3 of 8 around 5f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 19%

DrawDrawn 5 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Shes Got A Brother Likely to lead

Stall 14 · Trainer Michael & David Easterby

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 5, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

114 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey %

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 98

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

11435 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 5 around 5f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%

DrawDrawn 14 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Drops in class (C1→C2)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Alfa Duplicate Likely to lead Finished 6

Stall 8 · Trainer Ivan Furtado · Jockey Silvestre De Sousa

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

105 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 18%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 105

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

711316 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 4 around 5f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 18%

DrawDrawn 8 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

4 Front Line Fury Likely to lead Finished 12

Stall 9 · Trainer George Scott · Jockey Tom Marquand

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

103 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 17% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 103

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

5871062 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 3

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 9 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

5 Rotokura Belle Settles midfield Finished 7

Stall 15 · Trainer Ivan Furtado · Jockey Cam Hardie

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

95 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 95

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

561641 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 5

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 3 of 13 around 5f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 15 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

6 Hanney Girl Likely to lead Finished 9

Stall 3 · Trainer Tim Easterby · Jockey James Sullivan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

103 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 103

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

567539 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 5)

DistanceHas won around 5f — 2 from 12

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

First-time tongue-tie

Weakened in the closing stages last time

7 Fortification Likely to lead Finished 13

Stall 11 · Trainer Brian Ellison · Jockey Ben Robinson

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

97 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 97

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

324143 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 4

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 8 around 5f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 3 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 11 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

8 Schrodinger's Cat Races prominently Finished 2

Stall 1 · Trainer Grant Tuer · Jockey Oliver Stammers

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

104 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

122831 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 10

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 11 around 5f

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

9 Mighty Magnus Likely to lead Finished 5

Stall 4 · Trainer Michael Dods · Jockey Mark Winn

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

91 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 91

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2821331 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 8

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 6 around 5f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 4 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

10 Boston Dan Races prominently Finished 10

Stall 12 · Trainer Richard & Peter Fahey · Jockey Oisin Orr

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

93 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 89

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

102791012 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 4)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 5f

Course4 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 12 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

11 Our Cody Races prominently

Stall 6 · Trainer Richard Hughes · Jockey Neil Callan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

89 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 89

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

452934 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 6)

DistanceHas won around 5f — 1 from 9

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

Drops in class (C1→C2)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

12 Allsortz Races prominently Finished 11

Stall 2 · Trainer David Marnane · Jockey Robbie Colgan

A model of consistency — placed in 6 of his last 6.

Ability rating

87 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 84

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

321313 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 4)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 5f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

13 Stargazed Races prominently Finished 8

Stall 10 · Trainer K R Burke · Jockey Clifford Lee

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

88 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 13%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 80

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

641212 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 5f

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 13%

DrawDrawn 10 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

14 Manatee Mehmas Races prominently Finished 3

Stall 7 · Trainer David O'Meara · Jockey David Nolan

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

95 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 81

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

148 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 5f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 7 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.17)

Drops in class (C1→C2)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

15 Go Vince Go Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 13 · Trainer Tim Easterby · Jockey Sean Kirrane

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

84 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at York

Last time out

RPR 77

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

5843817 last time ←

GroundHas won on good — 1 from 6

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 5f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 3 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 13 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.