Lingfield · 5:55pm

Truelove Trophy Handicap

Flat (Turf) 1m 2f GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.5) (Watered) Class 6 4yo+ 5 runners

Solid read Bownder is our pick, with Cuban Girl the main danger. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter. On recent form Bownder sets the standard (RPR 72).

How it played out: Baloo's Blues won. Our top composite read Bownder finished 3rd.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Lingfield (impact value 1.23, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Revelio is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Anyone well-treated?

Sansanetti drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Cuban Girl is the chief threat to Bownder, with the form figures climbing.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 3

6Bownder

2Sansanetti

4Baloo's Blues

Mid-pack 1

1Cuban Girl

Held up 1

3Revelio

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Lingfield (impact value 1.23, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 0.89

47% rivals beaten · n=141

Mid draw

IV 1.23

54% rivals beaten · n=161

High draw

IV 1.02

49% rivals beaten · n=225

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Bownder Races prominently Finished 3

Stall 6 · Trainer Jonathan Portman · Jockey Paddy Bradley

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

72 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 69

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

38214103 last time ←

GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 7

DistanceHas won around 1m 2f — 2 from 13

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 11%

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Cuban Girl Settles midfield Finished 5

Stall 1 · Trainer Brian Toomey · Jockey George Downing

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. First-time hood could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

72 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 68

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1279102 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 3

FitnessFreshened up — 45 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 8%

First-time hood

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Sansanetti Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 2 · Trainer Stuart Williams · Jockey Pat Cosgrave

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

67 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 66

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

721166 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 4 of 8 around 1m 2f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 11%

Drops in class (C5→C6)

4 Baloo's Blues Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 4 · Trainer Charles Hills · Jockey Harry Vigors(5)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

69 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 4%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 55

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

724529 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)

FitnessReturns from 92 days off the track

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 4%

Drops in class (C5→C6)Fresh (92d)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Revelio Held up, comes late Finished 2

Stall 3 · Trainer Tom Clover · Jockey Jack Callan(3)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

69 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 16%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 44

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

6910 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.6% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 16%

Drops in class (C4→C6)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.