Lingfield · 7:25pm

Choice Training Handicap

Flat (Turf) 5f GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; watered; 8.5) Class 5 4yo+ 5 runners

Solid read Ancient State is our pick, with Rogue Bullet the main danger.

Kiss And Run and Sam's Xpress should ensure an even gallop. On recent form Ancient State sets the standard (RPR 104).

How it played out: Ancient State won. Our top composite read Ancient State finished 1st.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Kiss And Run and Sam's Xpress should ensure an even gallop.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over sprint at Lingfield (impact value 1.15, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Anyone well-treated?

Rogue Bullet drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Rogue Bullet is the chief threat to Ancient State, with the form figures climbing.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 2

2Kiss And Run

5Sam's Xpress

Prominent 3

3Ancient State

1Rogue Bullet

4Lazzar

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over sprint at Lingfield (impact value 1.15, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.05

44% rivals beaten · n=66

Mid draw

IV 1.15

49% rivals beaten · n=83

High draw

IV 1.03

54% rivals beaten · n=108

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Ancient State Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 3 · Trainer Adam Kirby · Jockey Paddy Bradley

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. First-time eyeshields+tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

104 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 104

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

112251 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 3 of 6 around 5f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 11%

First-time eyeshields+tongue-tie

2 Rogue Bullet Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 1 · Trainer James Owen · Jockey Jack Callan(3)

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

96 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 16%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 96

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

3110651 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 3 of 8

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 11 around 5f

FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 6 days

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 16%

First-time cheekpiecesDrops in class (C4→C5)

3 Lazzar Races prominently Finished 2

Stall 4 · Trainer Richard Hughes · Jockey Pat Cosgrave

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

93 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

8310694 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 4)

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 5)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 11%

First-time cheekpieces

Weakened in the closing stages last time

4 Kiss And Run Likely to lead Finished 3

Stall 2 · Trainer Rachel Cook & John Bridger · Jockey Grace McEntee

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

86 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 86

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

223725 last time ←

GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 8

DistanceHas won around 5f — 3 from 22

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 9%

First-time tongue-tieDrops in class (C4→C5)

5 Sam's Xpress Likely to lead Finished 5

Stall 5 · Trainer Julia & Shelley Birkett · Jockey Dylan Hogan

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6.

Ability rating

79 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 17% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 59

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

113369 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 4 of 15 around 5f

FitnessReturns from 99 days off the track

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 12%

Fresh (99d)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.