Chepstow · 7:35pm

Congratulations Dan & Grace Handicap

Flat (Turf) 1m GOOD TO FIRM (Watered; 7.8) Class 5 4yo+ 7 runners

Clear read Spirit Of The Bay stands out on our figures.

This 1m class 5 flat race at Chepstow features 7 runners on firm going, with Gennadius likely to lead and dictate a steady gallop from its favourable high draw. High draws are favoured over mid draws at Chepstow, with an impact value of 1.21, beating 50% of rivals on average. Spirit Of The Bay, a course winner with a recent RPR of 87, is a leading contender, but faces a significant threat from Gennadius, the sole confirmed front-runner, while Happy Banner drops in class, a potentially positive angle.

How it played out: Stardancer won. Our top composite read Spirit Of The Bay finished 7th.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Gennadius is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control, and is favourably drawn (high is best over this trip here) — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

High draws are favoured over mid at Chepstow (impact value 1.21, beating 50% of rivals on average). Gennadius, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Anyone well-treated?

Happy Banner drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

5Gennadius

Prominent 4

1Spirit Of The Bay

7Rating

2Happy Banner

6Stardancer

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 2

4Great Blasket

3Echalar

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

High draws are favoured over mid at Chepstow (impact value 1.21, beating 50% of rivals on average). Gennadius, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Low draw

IV 1.12

48% rivals beaten · n=147

Mid draw

IV 0.82

53% rivals beaten · n=165

High draw

IV 1.21

50% rivals beaten · n=221

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Spirit Of The Bay Races prominently Finished 7

Stall 1 · Trainer John & Rhys Flint · Jockey William Cox

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

87 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 5% · Jockey 3%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 87

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

375944 last time ←

GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 11

DistanceHas won around 1m — 3 from 19

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 4 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 3%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.12)

First-time cheekpieces

2 Gennadius Likely to lead Finished 4

Stall 5 · Trainer Richard Hannon · Jockey Joe Leavy

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; first-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

78 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

249792 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 6)

DistanceHas won around 1m — 1 from 10

FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 6 days

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)

First-time cheekpieces

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

3 Rating Races prominently Finished 5

Stall 7 · Trainer Grace Harris · Jockey William Carson

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

74 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 74

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

832315 last time ←

GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 9

DistanceHas won around 1m — 1 from 8

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)

First-time cheekpieces

4 Happy Banner Races prominently Finished 2

Stall 2 · Trainer Ed Walker · Jockey Ashley Lewis(5)

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; first-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

78 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

786233 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 3)

DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 6)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.12)

First-time tongue-tieDrops in class (C4→C5)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

5 Stardancer Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 6 · Trainer Clive Cox · Jockey Georgia Dobie

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

80 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 66

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

622376 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)

First-time tongue-tie

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Great Blasket Held up, comes late Finished 6

Stall 4 · Trainer Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole · Jockey Jack Doughty

Holds solid claims on these figures. First-time blinkers could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

68 steady

recent best — career high 89 in 2024

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 67

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1169437 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 7)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 8 of 32 around 1m

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.82)

First-time blinkers

7 Echalar Held up, comes late Finished 3

Stall 3 · Trainer Ian Williams · Jockey Robert Dunne

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; first-time hood could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

79 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 24

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

91166710 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 4)

FitnessFreshened up — 50 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.82)

First-time hoodDrops in class (C2→C5)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.