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Lingfield · 8:55pm

Harris & Bailey Builders Merchants 'Confined' Apprentice Handicap

Flat (Turf) 6f GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; watered; 8.5) Class 6 3yo+ 4 runners
Clear read Savannah Smiles stands out on our figures. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.
No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter. On recent form Savannah Smiles sets the standard (RPR 76). Note Orange Emperor for an in-form yard. Savannah Smiles rates the clear standout and is taken to confirm.
How it played out: Savannah Smiles won. Our top composite read Savannah Smiles finished 1st.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.
Does the draw matter?
Mid draws are favoured over sprint at Lingfield (impact value 1.15, beating 49% of rivals on average).
Anyone well-treated?
Savannah Smiles drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 4

1Savannah Smiles
5Blindfold Games
4Orange Emperor
2My Dad Tom

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over sprint at Lingfield (impact value 1.15, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.05
44% rivals beaten · n=66

Mid draw

IV 1.15
49% rivals beaten · n=83

High draw

IV 1.03
54% rivals beaten · n=108
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read Savannah Smiles Races prominently Finished 1
Stall 1 · Trainer Grace Harris · Jockey Harry Vigors(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating
76 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 10% · Jockey 4%
strike rate at Lingfield
Last time out
RPR 76
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
1377623 last time ←
GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 10
DistanceHas won around 6f — 5 from 43
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 4%
First-time cheekpiecesDrops in class (C5→C6)
2 Blindfold Games Races prominently Finished 2
Stall 5 · Trainer George Boughey · Jockey Jack Callan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; first-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating
71 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 17% · Jockey 16%
strike rate at Lingfield
Last time out
RPR 66
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
436558 last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 6)
FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 5 days
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 16%
First-time tongue-tie
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
3 Orange Emperor Races prominently Finished 3
Stall 4 · Trainer James Fanshawe · Jockey Arron D'Arcy(7)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Drops in class, often a positive sign; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating
66 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 16% · Jockey 0%
strike rate at Lingfield
Last time out
RPR 64
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
642562 last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 5)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 0%
Drops in class (C5→C6)Stable hot (5/22, 23%)
Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit
4 My Dad Tom Races prominently Finished 4
Stall 2 · Trainer Richard Hannon · Jockey Tyrese Cameron(5)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating
62 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 6%
strike rate at Lingfield
Last time out
RPR 47
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
446666 last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 7)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 6%
First-time cheekpieces
Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.