Lingfield · 8:25pm

Animus Associates Classified Stakes

Flat (Turf) 7½f GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; watered; 8.5) Class 6 3yo+ 9 runners

Tight read Desert Charm just edges it from Nicely Curved and Drafted — top 3 covered by 5 RPR. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.

Dontwaryboutathing is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front. On recent form Nicely Curved sets the standard (RPR 73). By our composite read Desert Charm shapes as the one they all have to beat — is proven at the trip. Note Desert Charm for an in-form yard. In truth this is a tight heat — Desert Charm just shades it from Nicely Curved on our read, so each-way thinking and the placepot make sense.

How it played out: Desert Charm won. Our top composite read Desert Charm finished 1st.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Dontwaryboutathing is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Lingfield (impact value 1.23, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Mr Jeffrey is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Anyone well-treated?

Mr Jeffrey drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Nicely Curved is the chief threat to Desert Charm, met trouble last time — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

8Dontwaryboutathing

Prominent 3

4Nicely Curved

2Blossom In The Air

3Rovinia

Mid-pack 1

6Drafted

Held up 4

9Desert Charm

10Lowestoft

5Accommodation

1Mr Jeffrey

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Lingfield (impact value 1.23, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 0.89

47% rivals beaten · n=141

Mid draw

IV 1.23

54% rivals beaten · n=161

High draw

IV 1.02

49% rivals beaten · n=225

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Desert Charm Held up, comes late Finished 1

Stall 9 · Trainer Mike Murphy · Jockey Paddy Bradley

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

69 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 69

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

489631 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 10 around 7½f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.02)

Stable hot (2/5, 40%)

2 Nicely Curved Races prominently Finished 3

Stall 4 · Trainer Hayley Burton · Jockey Stevie Donohoe

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; first-time hood+tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

73 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 24% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 72

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

27493 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7½f (0 from 3)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 24%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)

First-time hood+tongue-tie

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

3 Drafted Settles midfield Finished 6

Stall 6 · Trainer Charlie Pike · Jockey Kieren Fox

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

67 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 0% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 67

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

7810435 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 4)

DistanceHas won around 7½f — 3 from 27

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 0%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)

Stable hot (3/7, 43%)

4 Blossom In The Air Races prominently Finished 4

Stall 2 · Trainer Robert Edwards · Jockey Dylan Hogan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

63 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 0% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 63

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

611884 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7½f (0 from 2)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 0%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.89)

First-time cheekpieces

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Lowestoft Held up, comes late Finished 7

Stall 10 · Trainer Matt Crawley · Jockey Liam Wright(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time tongue-tie could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

67 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 67

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

866945 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7½f (0 from 6)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.02)

First-time tongue-tie

6 Rovinia Races prominently Finished 2

Stall 3 · Trainer Roger Teal · Jockey Owen Lewis(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

57 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 53

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1265895 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 5)

DistanceHas won around 7½f — 1 from 6

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.89)

7 Accommodation Held up, comes late Finished 5

Stall 5 · Trainer Stuart Williams · Jockey Harry Vigors(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

59 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 4%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 59

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

693148 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7½f (0 from 3)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 4%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

8 Mr Jeffrey Held up, comes late Finished 8

Stall 1 · Trainer Rachel Cook & John Bridger · Jockey Rhys Clutterbuck

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 44

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

13127 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 13.6% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 7½f (0 from 2)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.89)

Drops in class (C4→C6)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

9 Dontwaryboutathing Likely to lead Finished 9

Stall 8 · Trainer D Donovan · Jockey Pat Cosgrave

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

45 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 5% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 11

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

61212 last time ←

FitnessFreshened up — 64 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.02)

Drops in class (C4→C6)Fresh (64d)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.