Lingfield · 7:55pm

Getaway To Cyprus EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Flat (Turf) 5f GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; watered; 8.5) Class 4 2yo · F 6 runners

Solid read Havana Flash is our pick, with Penny Capri the main danger.

Penny Capri is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control, and is favourably drawn (mid is best over this trip here) — a powerful setup if left alone up front. On recent form Havana Flash sets the standard (RPR 95).

How it played out: Terminology won. Our top composite read Havana Flash finished 2nd.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over sprint at Lingfield (impact value 1.15, beating 49% of rivals on average). Penny Capri, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Any unexposed improver?

Havana Flash is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Anyone well-treated?

Havana Flash drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Penny Capri is the chief threat to Havana Flash, with first-time headgear.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

3Penny Capri

Prominent 3

5Havana Flash

4Terminology

6Persian Sunset

Mid-pack 2

1Betty Boop

2Najmet Minzaal

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 50%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over sprint at Lingfield (impact value 1.15, beating 49% of rivals on average). Penny Capri, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Low draw

IV 1.05

44% rivals beaten · n=66

Mid draw

IV 1.15

49% rivals beaten · n=83

High draw

IV 1.03

54% rivals beaten · n=108

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Havana Flash Races prominentlyest Finished 2

Stall 5 · Trainer George Boughey · Jockey Jack Callan(3)

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 17% · Jockey 16%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 95

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

8 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.9% on firm

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 16%

DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.03)

Drops in class (C2→C4)

2 Penny Capri Likely to lead Finished 5

Stall 3 · Trainer David Loughnane · Jockey Laura Pearson

Holds solid claims on these figures. First-time hood could sharpen him up.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 81

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

66 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.15)

First-time hood

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Terminology Races prominentlyest Finished 1

Stall 4 · Trainer Archie Watson · Jockey Harry Vigors(5)

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 4%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

3 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.9% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 4%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.15)

4 Betty Boop Settles midfieldest Finished 3

Stall 1 · Trainer Richard Hughes · Jockey Pat Cosgrave

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

—

most recent run

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 14.3% on firm

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

5 Najmet Minzaal Settles midfield Finished 4

Stall 2 · Trainer Jack Channon · Jockey George Bass

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 17% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 66

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

4 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.05)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

6 Persian Sunset Races prominently Finished 6

Stall 6 · Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy · Jockey Paddy Bradley

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Lingfield

Last time out

RPR 50

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

39 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 22.0% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.03)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.