Chepstow · 6:00pm

Hayleys Race To Happily Ever After Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race)

Flat (Turf) 6f GOOD TO FIRM (Watered; 7.8) Class 5 2yo 8 runners

Solid read Dream On Kent is our pick, with Miss Moneypit the main danger.

This 6f sprint at Chepstow is expected to be run at a muddling, tactical gallop, with no clear pace setter. Low draws are favoured on this track, with an impact value of 1.23, beating 50% of rivals on average. Dream On Kent, who drops in class and has a recent RPR of 97, is the fair favourite, but faces a significant challenge from Miss Moneypit, who also drops in class and has climbing form figures. Other contenders include Lushill and Em's Dilemma, both of whom are also dropping in class.

How it played out: Super Tuscan won. Our top composite read Dream On Kent finished 2nd.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over sprint at Chepstow (impact value 1.23, beating 50% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Dream On Kent is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Anyone well-treated?

Dream On Kent drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Miss Moneypit is the chief threat to Dream On Kent, with the form figures climbing.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 5

1Miss Moneypit

4Em's Dilemma

6Curious Minx

7Pageant Girl

3Super Tuscan

Mid-pack 2

5Dream On Kent

8Lushill

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 38%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over sprint at Chepstow (impact value 1.23, beating 50% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.23

50% rivals beaten · n=109

Mid draw

IV 0.86

48% rivals beaten · n=127

High draw

IV 1.1

51% rivals beaten · n=174

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Dream On Kent Settles midfieldest Finished 2

Stall 5 · Trainer David Evans · Jockey Ryan Kavanagh(5)

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 79

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

82 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 14.9% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.86)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

2 Miss Moneypit Races prominently Finished 5

Stall 1 · Trainer Rod Millman · Jockey Rowan Scott

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

78 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

845 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 13.7% on firm

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Lushill Settles midfieldest Finished 3

Stall 8 · Trainer J S Moore · Jockey William Cox

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 3%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 69

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

5 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 1)

FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 4 days

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 3%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.1)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

4 Em's Dilemma Races prominentlyest Finished 8

Stall 4 · Trainer David Evans · Jockey Tyler Heard

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

—

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

11 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.86)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

5 Invicta Rose Run-style unknown Finished 6

Stall 2 · Trainer Ollie Sangster · Jockey Nicola Currie

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 64

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

47 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 6f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Curious Minx Races prominentlyest Finished 4

Stall 6 · Trainer Richard Hannon · Jockey Joe Leavy

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 64

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

7 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.1)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

7 Pageant Girl Races prominently Finished 7

Stall 7 · Trainer James Owen · Jockey Ashley Lewis(5)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

70 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 44

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

718 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 16.6% on firm

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 1 around 6f

FitnessFreshened up — 55 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.1)

Drops in class (C2→C5)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

8 Super Tuscan Races prominently Finished 1

Stall 3 · Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton · Jockey Callum Hutchinson

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 50

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

54 last time ←

FitnessFreshened up — 46 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.86)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.