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Chepstow · 5:25pm

UB40 Ali Campbell At Chepstow Racecourse 24th July Handicap

Flat (Turf) 1m 2f GOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: 7.8) (Watered) Class 6 3yo 6 runners
Tight read Notable Charm just edges it from Hello Garda and A Daughters Love — top 3 covered by 7 RPR. Field updated — 2 non-runners removed.
This 1m 2f class 6 flat race at Chepstow features 6 runners on firm going, with Lady Lauren likely to lead and dictate a steady gallop from her favourable high draw. The race is tightly contested at the top, with Notable Charm and Hello Garda emerging as the main contenders, the latter posing the chief threat to the former. Notable Charm, who drops in class, and Hello Garda are closely matched on figures, with recent RPRs of 60 and 63 respectively. High draws are favoured at Chepstow, with an impact value of 1.21, which could enhance Lady Lauren's chances.
How it played out: A Daughters Love won. Our top composite read Notable Charm finished 4th.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
Lady Lauren is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control, and is favourably drawn (high is best over this trip here) — a powerful setup if left alone up front.
Does the draw matter?
High draws are favoured over mid at Chepstow (impact value 1.21, beating 50% of rivals on average). Lady Lauren, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.
Any unexposed improver?
Notable Charm is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.
Anyone well-treated?
Notable Charm drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Who's the main danger?
Hello Garda is the chief threat to Notable Charm, with the form figures climbing — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

5Lady Lauren

Prominent 2

8Notable Charm
2A Daughters Love

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 3

4Hello Garda
1No Drama Mama
7Madame Passant

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

High draws are favoured over mid at Chepstow (impact value 1.21, beating 50% of rivals on average). Lady Lauren, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.

Low draw

IV 1.12
48% rivals beaten · n=147

Mid draw

IV 0.82
53% rivals beaten · n=165

High draw

IV 1.21
50% rivals beaten · n=221
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read Notable Charm Races prominently Finished 4
Stall 8 · Trainer Marcus Tregoning · Jockey Ashley Lewis(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating
60 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 4% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 60
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
2396 last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 13.7% on firm
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 4%, jockey 12%
DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)
Drops in class (C3→C6)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
2 Hello Garda Held up, comes late Finished 2
Stall 4 · Trainer John Joseph Hanlon · Jockey Finlay Bassett(7)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating
63 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 5% · Jockey 0%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 63
most recent run
Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent
810124 last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)
FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 5 days
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 0%
DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.82)
3 A Daughters Love Races prominently Finished 1
Stall 2 · Trainer David Flood · Jockey Jack Doughty

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating
56 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 5% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 56
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
81071133 last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 2)
FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 4 days
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 9%
DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.12)
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
4 No Drama Mama Held up, comes late Finished 5
Stall 1 · Trainer Ollie Sangster · Jockey Rowan Scott

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. First-time cheekpieces could sharpen him up.

Ability rating
53 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 8% · Jockey 7%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 37
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
956885 last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 2)
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 7%
DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.12)
First-time cheekpieces
5 Lady Lauren Likely to lead Finished 6
Stall 5 · Trainer Ed de Giles · Jockey William Cox

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.

Ability rating
44 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 10% · Jockey 3%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 30
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
3236510 last time ←
GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 3)
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)
Course3 runs at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 3%
DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
6 Madame Passant Held up, comes late Finished 3
Stall 7 · Trainer Charlie Pike · Jockey Nicola Currie

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. First-time hood could sharpen him up; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating
45 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 0% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 31
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
72110 last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 13.3% on firm
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 0%, jockey 9%
DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)
First-time hoodDrops in class (C2→C6)Stable hot (3/7, 43%)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.