Windsor · 7:15pm
Flat (Turf)
1m 2f
GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places: watered, 7.4) changing to GOOD TO FIRM after Race 2 (5.45)
Class 3
3yo+
4 runners
Tight read
Gonna Fly just edges it from Ruler Of Time and Lunella — top 3 covered by 6 RPR.
No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter. On recent form Gonna Fly sets the standard (RPR 95). In truth this is a tight heat — Gonna Fly just shades it from Ruler Of Time on our read, so each-way thinking and the placepot make sense.
How it played out: Gonna Fly won. Our top composite read Gonna Fly finished 1st.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over mid at Windsor (impact value 1.34, beating 49% of rivals on average).
Any unexposed improver?
Gonna Fly is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.
Anyone well-treated?
Gonna Fly drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Who's the main danger?
Ruler Of Time is the chief threat to Gonna Fly — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 0
—
Prominent 2
3Gonna Fly
1Ruler Of Time
Mid-pack 2
2Lunella
4Peace And Quiet
Held up 0
—
Pace confidence: 75%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
Low draws are favoured over mid at Windsor (impact value 1.34, beating 49% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.34
49% rivals beaten · n=211
Mid draw
IV 1.07
53% rivals beaten · n=235
High draw
IV 0.87
48% rivals beaten · n=320
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Gonna Fly
Races prominently
Finished 1
Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
95
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 16% · Jockey 21%
strike rate at Windsor
Last time out
RPR 73
most recent run
Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent
18
last time ←
FitnessFreshened up — 70 days since his last run
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 21%
Drops in class (C1→C3)Fresh (70d)
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
2
Ruler Of Time
Races prominently
Finished 2
Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. The stable is in good heart at the track.
Ability rating
87 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 29% · Jockey 19%
strike rate at Windsor
Last time out
RPR 79
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
222
last time ←
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 29%, jockey 19%
Weakened in the closing stages last time
3
Lunella
Settles midfieldest
Finished 3
A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.
Ability rating
—
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 8% · Jockey 17%
strike rate at Windsor
Last time out
—
most recent run
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 17%
4
Peace And Quiet
Settles midfield
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
58
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 13% · Jockey 7%
strike rate at Windsor
Last time out
RPR 58
most recent run
Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent
710
last time ←
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 7%
Weakened in the closing stages last time
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.