Win rate, place rate and return by price
Here is every starting-price band — how often it wins, how often it places, and what backing every runner in it blindly at SP would have returned. Read it top to bottom and you're watching an efficient market at work.
| Starting price | Win rate | Place rate | Level-stakes ROI | Runners |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds-on (under evens) | 59.6% | 90.4% | -5.0% | 22,812 |
| Evens to 2/1 | 38.0% | 77.9% | -6.7% | 53,910 |
| 9/4 to 7/2 | 25.0% | 63.3% | -9.0% | 122,728 |
| 4/1 to 11/2 | 16.5% | 50.0% | -13.8% | 158,784 |
| 6/1 to 10/1 | 10.4% | 36.8% | -16.4% | 260,308 |
| 11/1 to 20/1 | 5.7% | 23.8% | -22.0% | 283,801 |
| Bigger than 20/1 | 1.6% | 9.1% | -48.2% | 415,720 |
The big-price drain
Notice the bottom row. Runners sent off bigger than 20/1 win just 1.6% of the time and have returned -48.2% — back them across the board and you lose roughly half your money. The lottery-ticket end of the card is where bankrolls go to die. The shortest prices lose least, but they still lose: there is no band you can back on autopilot and come out ahead.
Every morning our model scores all UK & Irish runners and flags only the races where it thinks the price is off — not a system, a filter. The standout pick is free, on Telegram, logged before the off.
Get today's free pick →What it means
This is the single most important chart in betting, and it's why "back all the favourites" or "back all the longshots" are both losing systems. The crowd prices each horse remarkably close to its true chance, then takes its cut on top. You don't beat that by picking a price band. You beat it — if at all — by finding the individual runners the crowd has mispriced, and passing everything else. Which is the whole game.
Method. 1,318,063 UK & Irish runners with a starting price, 2015–2026. Win and place rates are share of runners; ROI is profit ÷ stakes from a 1-point level stake at industry SP on every runner in the band, before each-way or commission. Past results don't guarantee the future. 18+ · BeGambleAware.