How often does the favourite win?
Roughly a third of the time. The market does its job: shorter prices win more often, longer prices less. But the crowd is paid for being right — so even when the favourite obliges, the price rarely pays you enough to come out ahead. Below, the favourite's strike rate climbs steeply as the price shortens, yet every band still loses at level stakes.
By starting price
| Favourite's SP | Win rate | Level-stakes ROI | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds-on (under evens) | 59.7% | -4.9% | 23,042 |
| Evens to 2/1 | 38.4% | -6.8% | 46,546 |
| 2/1 to 3/1 | 27.8% | -7.2% | 42,278 |
| Bigger than 3/1 | 19.3% | -10.5% | 41,653 |
The punch line: even odds-on "bankers" — the ones that look like free money — won 59.7% of the time and still lost 4.9% to level stakes. The shorter the price, the more certain it feels, and the less you're paid to be right.
It isn't a fluke — 12 years of the same answer
One quiet year proves nothing. So here's every year. The favourite's win rate never leaves the low-30s, and the return is negative in every single one — a market efficiently pricing the obvious, season after season.
| Year | Win rate | Level-stakes ROI | Favourites |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 33.1% | -7.4% | 13,440 |
| 2016 | 33.1% | -6.3% | 13,590 |
| 2017 | 33.0% | -8.6% | 13,796 |
| 2018 | 33.6% | -6.2% | 14,044 |
| 2019 | 33.9% | -6.7% | 13,550 |
| 2020 | 32.6% | -8.6% | 9,063 |
| 2021 | 33.3% | -7.4% | 14,266 |
| 2022 | 33.9% | -8.7% | 13,847 |
| 2023 | 32.8% | -10.1% | 13,691 |
| 2024 | 33.2% | -9.0% | 13,676 |
| 2025 | 34.8% | -6.3% | 14,110 |
| 2026 | 35.2% | -5.7% | 6,446 |
Smaller fields, kinder odds — to a point
Fewer rivals, more winners: in a 2-4 runners race the favourite wins over half the time. But the price collapses to match, so even the smallest fields don't quite pay.
| Field size | Win rate | Level-stakes ROI | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-4 runners | 51.3% | -2.3% | 8,542 |
| 5-7 runners | 39.2% | -5.7% | 42,264 |
| 8-12 runners | 31.2% | -7.6% | 73,857 |
| 13+ runners | 25.7% | -12.0% | 28,856 |
Most races are a pass. Our model scores every UK & Irish runner each morning and only flags the few where the data sees a genuine edge — logged before the off, settled in public. Free, every day, on Telegram.
Get today's free pick →Handicaps are where favourites struggle most
Handicaps exist to bunch the field on the line — and it shows. The favourite's edge is far bigger in non-handicaps, where class tells, than in handicaps, where the weights are designed to level it.
| Race type | Win rate | Level-stakes ROI | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| Handicaps | 28.3% | -8.1% | 97,164 |
| Non-handicaps | 42.4% | -6.8% | 56,355 |
Going and class barely move the needle
Wherever you look, the answer is the same — which is the real story. The market prices the favourite about as well on heavy ground as on firm, in a Class 1 as in a Class 6. There is no soft pocket to exploit by going alone.
By going
| Going | Win | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Heavy | 34.8% | -8.9% |
| Firm | 33.8% | -6.8% |
| Soft | 33.7% | -6.5% |
| Good | 33.6% | -7.7% |
| Standard | 32.6% | -8.9% |
By class
| Class | Win | ROI |
|---|---|---|
| Class 1 | 34.2% | -6.4% |
| Class 2 | 29.0% | -7.7% |
| Class 3 | 33.5% | -6.3% |
| Class 4 | 36.6% | -5.6% |
| Class 5 | 34.5% | -6.9% |
| Class 6 | 29.6% | -9.7% |
The favourite-friendliest and cruelest courses
Where favourites win most: small, lower-grade tracks with short fields. Where they win least: the big stages — York, Epsom, Cheltenham — competitive, big-field, festival racing where the obvious horse is anything but.
Kindest to favourites
| Course | Win rate |
|---|---|
| Ludlow | 39.3% |
| Taunton | 38.8% |
| Fakenham | 38.4% |
| Sedgefield | 38.3% |
| Plumpton | 38.0% |
| Punchestown | 37.8% |
| Fontwell | 37.7% |
| Newton Abbot | 37.7% |
Cruelest to favourites
| Course | Win rate |
|---|---|
| York | 27.0% |
| Epsom | 29.0% |
| Cheltenham | 29.2% |
| Curragh | 29.8% |
| Newmarket | 29.9% |
| Newbury | 30.0% |
| Dundalk (AW) | 30.5% |
| Downpatrick | 30.7% |
So — should you back favourites?
Not blindly. The single clearest lesson in 142,094 races is that the betting market prices the favourite brutally well. There's no free money in backing them by rote, and none in laying them either — the price already knows. Edges come from the opposite of a system: selectivity — finding the specific races where the price is wrong, and having the discipline to pass the rest. Which, give or take, is the whole job.
Method. 153,519 favourites across 142,094 UK & Irish races, 2015–2026. The favourite is the lowest starting price in each race; joint-favourites are each counted as a 1-point level stake at SP. ROI is profit ÷ total stakes at industry SP, before any each-way or commission. Past results don't guarantee the future. 18+ · BeGambleAware.