Thirsk · 4:45pm
Flat (Turf)
1m
GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.0)
Class 5
4yo+
6 runners
Tight read
Military Leader just edges it from Barley and Capital Guarantee — top 3 covered by 16 RPR.
Degale is the only confirmed front-runner and is drawn high, which is the favoured section over this trip at Thirsk (impact value 1.34, beating 53% of rivals on average). A steady gallop is likely, with Degale well positioned to control the pace if left alone in front. The top of the race is very tight on figures, with Military Leader and Barley separated by less than a length. Barley, who drops in class and has improving form figures, is considered the main danger to Military Leader. Capital Guarantee and Degale also drop in class and have course-winning form, adding further depth to a closely matched field.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
Degale is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control, and is favourably drawn (high is best over this trip here) — a powerful setup if left alone up front.
Does the draw matter?
High draws are favoured over mid at Thirsk (impact value 1.34, beating 53% of rivals on average). Degale, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.
Anyone well-treated?
Barley drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Who's the main danger?
Barley is the chief threat to Military Leader, with the form figures climbing — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 1
5Degale
Prominent 2
2Barley
3Capital Guarantee
Mid-pack 2
1Military Leader
6Harswell Ruby
Held up 1
4Cosmos Raj
Pace confidence: 100%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
High draws are favoured over mid at Thirsk (impact value 1.34, beating 53% of rivals on average). Degale, the likely leader, is drawn in the favoured section — a positive.
Low draw
IV 0.44
44% rivals beaten · n=175
Mid draw
IV 1.23
52% rivals beaten · n=195
High draw
IV 1.34
53% rivals beaten · n=250
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Military Leader
Settles midfield
Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.
Ability rating
96 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 7% · Jockey 14%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 96
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
421132
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 8 around 1m
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 14%
DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.44)
2
Barley
Races prominently
Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
90 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 90
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
1362323
last time ←
GroundHas won on firm — 2 from 12
DistanceHas won around 1m — 3 from 41
Course3 runs at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 9%
DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.44)
Drops in class (C4→C5)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
3
Capital Guarantee
Races prominently
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
86 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 33%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 80
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
142129146
last time ←
GroundProven on firm — won 3 of 13
DistanceHas won around 1m — 2 from 15
CourseCourse winner — 2 from 6 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 33%
DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)
Drops in class (C4→C5)
4
Degale
Likely to lead
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
83 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 7% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 71
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
103115138
last time ←
GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 4)
DistanceHas won around 1m — 1 from 9
Course3 runs at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 9%
DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.34)
Drops in class (C4→C5)
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
5
Harswell Ruby
Settles midfield
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
79 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 7% · Jockey 10%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 73
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
546452
last time ←
GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 10
DistanceHas won around 1m — 2 from 17
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 3 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 10%
DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.34)
Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit
6
Cosmos Raj
Held up, comes late
Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
71 regressing
recent best — career high 87 in 2022
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 49
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
7109576
last time ←
GroundHas won on firm — 2 from 13
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 11 of 52 around 1m
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%
DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)
Drops in class (C4→C5)
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.