Thirsk · 2:28pm
Flat (Turf)
1m
GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.0)
Class 5
3yo · F
4 runners
Clear read
Hatamoto stands out on our figures.
Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.
This small field lacks a confirmed front-runner, so a muddling, tactical gallop is likely, making tactical speed and an early handy position important. High draws have a statistical edge at Thirsk, with an impact value of 1.34 and a 53% average of beating rivals from mid draws. Hatamoto stands out on recent figures (RPR 73) and had excuses last time after meeting trouble in running. Leelawadee rates the main danger, having kept on well for a recent RPR of 66. Lady Britain also posted a recent RPR of 66 and drops in class, a move that has often worked well for her trainer.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.
Does the draw matter?
High draws are favoured over mid at Thirsk (impact value 1.34, beating 53% of rivals on average).
Anyone well-treated?
Lady Britain drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 0
—
Prominent 3
3Leelawadee
5Lady Britain
4Scheffler
Mid-pack 1
2Hatamoto
Held up 0
—
Pace confidence: 100%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
High draws are favoured over mid at Thirsk (impact value 1.34, beating 53% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 0.44
44% rivals beaten · n=175
Mid draw
IV 1.23
52% rivals beaten · n=195
High draw
IV 1.34
53% rivals beaten · n=250
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Hatamoto
Settles midfield
Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.
Ability rating
73 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 6%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 73
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
623721
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 1m
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 6%
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
2
Leelawadee
Races prominently
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.
Ability rating
66 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 9% · Jockey 5%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 66
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
754
last time ←
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 5%
Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit
3
Lady Britain
Races prominently
A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. Drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
66 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 0% · Jockey 4%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 46
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
9531116
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 2 around 1m
FitnessBack from a long absence — 308 days off, fitness to prove
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 0%, jockey 4%
Drops in class (C2→C5)Long layoff (308d)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
4
Scheffler
Races prominently
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
71 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 4% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Thirsk
Last time out
RPR 47
most recent run
Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent
39910
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 1)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 4%, jockey 12%
Weakened in the closing stages last time
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.