Leopardstown · 7:45pm

Mervue Equine Handicap

Flat (Turf) 1m 2f GOOD, Good to firm in places 3yo+ 9 runners

Tight read Daler just edges it from Unterberg and Blackjack Hills — top 3 covered by 4 RPR.

Out On Friday is the only confirmed front-runner, so a steady pace that suits those on or near the lead looks likely. Mid draws have a notable edge at Leopardstown, with an impact value of 1.32 and an average of 51% of rivals beaten. The race looks tightly matched at the top, with Daler and Unterberg separated by less than a length on recent figures; both are course winners. Blackjack Hills and Marmeladova also come into consideration, though both tend to be held up and posted slightly lower recent ratings.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Out On Friday is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Who's the main danger?

Unterberg is the chief threat to Daler, a course winner — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

3Out On Friday

Prominent 3

7Unterberg

6Neo Smart

5Sinbad My Dad

Mid-pack 1

4Faro Island

Held up 4

8Daler

9Blackjack Hills

2Marmeladova

1En Or

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.13

53% rivals beaten · n=439

Mid draw

IV 1.32

51% rivals beaten · n=461

High draw

IV 0.94

47% rivals beaten · n=668

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Daler Held up, comes late

Stall 8 · Trainer G M Lyons · Jockey Colin Keane

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

92 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 17%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 84

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

648712 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 6)

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 17%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

2 Unterberg Races prominently

Stall 7 · Trainer Laura Hourigan · Jockey Rory Mulligan(5)

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

88 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 30% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 82

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

5111128 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 9)

DistanceHas won around 1m 2f — 2 from 13

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 3 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 30%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Blackjack Hills Held up, comes late

Stall 9 · Trainer Matthew J Smith · Jockey Robbie Colgan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

86 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 86

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

91114117 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 6)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 1m 2f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

4 Marmeladova Held up, comes late

Stall 2 · Trainer K J Condon · Jockey W J Lee

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.

Ability rating

85 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 72

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1081432 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 4)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 2f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Neo Smart Races prominently

Stall 6 · Trainer J S Bolger · Jockey Declan McDonogh

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

79 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 72

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

419774 last time ←

GroundHas won on good — 1 from 15

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 1)

Course5 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

6 En Or Held up, comes late

Stall 1 · Trainer A J Martin · Jockey Ben Coen

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

91 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 50

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

910712312 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 8

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 2f

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

7 Faro Island Settles midfield

Stall 4 · Trainer A Oliver · Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

71 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 68

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

3113417 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 2f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

8 Sinbad My Dad Races prominently

Stall 5 · Trainer Seamus Fahey · Jockey Joseph Harnett(7)

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

75 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 1% · Jockey 0%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 63

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

433986 last time ←

GroundHas won on good — 1 from 10

DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 9)

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 1%, jockey 0%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

9 Out On Friday Likely to lead

Stall 3 · Trainer Philip M Byrne · Jockey Wesley Joyce(3)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

69 improving

recent best — career high 81 in 2023

This track

Trainer 4% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 53

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2131511214 last time ←

GroundHas won on good — 6 from 37

DistanceHas won around 1m 2f — 2 from 23

Course8 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 4%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.