Hamilton · 1:40pm
Flat (Turf)
5f
GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.3)
Class 4
2yo
4 runners
Tight read
Caturra Lights just edges it from Call Nicki and Tango Hotel — top 3 covered by 20 RPR.
This looks a tightly-matched four-runner sprint, with no confirmed front-runner and the prospect of a muddling, tactical gallop. Low draws are typically favoured over this trip at Hamilton, with an impact value of 1.19. Caturra Lights, lightly raced and dropping in class, is the type to progress, but faces a strong challenge from course winner Call Nicki—there is less than a length between them on recent figures. Tango Hotel and Or Another complete the field, though both have a bit to find on ratings, with Or Another having met trouble in running last time.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over sprint at Hamilton (impact value 1.19, beating 53% of rivals on average).
Any unexposed improver?
Caturra Lights is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.
Anyone well-treated?
Caturra Lights drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Who's the main danger?
Call Nicki is the chief threat to Caturra Lights, a course winner — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 0
—
Prominent 4
4Caturra Lights
3Call Nicki
2Tango Hotel
1Or Another
Mid-pack 0
—
Held up 0
—
Pace confidence: 100%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
Low draws are favoured over sprint at Hamilton (impact value 1.19, beating 53% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.19
53% rivals beaten · n=163
Mid draw
IV 1.12
50% rivals beaten · n=181
High draw
IV 1.0
48% rivals beaten · n=235
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Caturra Lights
Races prominently
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Drops in class, often a positive sign; the stable is in good heart at the track.
Ability rating
92 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 19% · Jockey 10%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 92
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
339
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 2)
FitnessFreshened up — 47 days since his last run
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 19%, jockey 10%
Drops in class (C2→C4)Stable hot (2/9, 22%)
2
Call Nicki
Races prominently
A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 5.
Ability rating
106 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 11%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 72
most recent run
Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent
43231
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 5f
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 11%
3
Tango Hotel
Races prominently
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
79 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 17% · Jockey 10%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 72
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
451
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 5f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 10%
4
Or Another
Races prominently
Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.
Ability rating
65 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 13% · Jockey 7%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 58
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
347
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 3)
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 7%
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.