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Epsom · 8:05pm

Vail Williams Handicap Stakes

Flat (Turf) 7f GOOD TO FIRM, Firm in places (GoingStick: 7.3) Class 4 4yo+ 5 runners
Clear read Musical Angel stands out on our figures.
Musical Angel sets the standard on recent form, with a recent RPR of 95 and previous course success, though did weaken late on last time. Atmosphere rates the main danger, also weakening in the closing stages on their latest start. Dream Of Mischief, another course winner, and Cherry Cobbler (both on recent RPRs of 79) are in the mix. An even gallop is likely with Musical Angel and Uppercase expected to be prominent. Low draws carry a statistical edge at Epsom, with an impact value of 1.24.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
Musical Angel and Uppercase should ensure an even gallop.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over mid at Epsom (impact value 1.24, beating 54% of rivals on average).
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 2

2Musical Angel
4Uppercase

Prominent 1

5Cherry Cobbler

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 2

3Atmosphere
1Dream Of Mischief

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over mid at Epsom (impact value 1.24, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.24
54% rivals beaten · n=145

Mid draw

IV 1.14
49% rivals beaten · n=157

High draw

IV 0.96
48% rivals beaten · n=202
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read Musical Angel Likely to lead
Stall 2 · Trainer Simon Dow · Jockey Tom Marquand

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.

Ability rating
95 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 87
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
321586 last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 7f
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 4 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%
Weakened in the closing stages last time
2 Atmosphere Held up, comes late
Stall 3 · Trainer Richard Spencer · Jockey Oisin Murphy

A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 6.

Ability rating
79 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 6% · Jockey 19%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 79
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
813322 last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 7f
FitnessReturns from 99 days off the track
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 19%
Fresh (99d)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
3 Dream Of Mischief Held up, comes late
Stall 1 · Trainer Amanda Perrett · Jockey Rob Hornby

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating
79 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 10%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 78
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
6711272 last time ←
GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 6)
DistanceHas won around 7f — 3 from 19
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 5 here
FitnessReturns from 166 days off the track
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 10%
Long layoff (166d)
4 Cherry Cobbler Races prominently
Stall 5 · Trainer Stuart Williams · Jockey Sean Levey

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating
79 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 14% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 75
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
8811172 last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 7f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 9%
5 Uppercase Likely to lead
Stall 4 · Trainer Harry Eustace · Jockey Kaiya Fraser

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating
76 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 15% · Jockey 14%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 67
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
427931 last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 7f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 14%

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.