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Epsom · 6:55pm

Chantilly Handicap Stakes

Flat (Turf) 1m 2f GOOD TO FIRM, Firm in places (GoingStick: 7.3) Class 5 3yo+ 5 runners
Solid read Tiger is our pick, with Booziebrunch the main danger.
A small field and lack of a confirmed front-runner suggest this could develop into a tactical contest, where early position and tactical speed may prove decisive. Low draws are favoured at Epsom, with an impact value of 1.24 and a 54% average of rivals beaten. Tiger sets the standard on recent RPRs but faces a live danger in Booziebrunch, whose form is on the up and who is effective on firm ground. Show Biz Kid drops in class, which is often a positive for the yard, while Hello Cotai brings course-winning form and kept on last time.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over mid at Epsom (impact value 1.24, beating 54% of rivals on average).
Anyone well-treated?
Show Biz Kid drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Who's the main danger?
Booziebrunch is the chief threat to Tiger, with the form figures climbing.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 3

2Booziebrunch
1Hello Cotai
4Perfect Scoundrel

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 2

5Tiger
3Show Biz Kid

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over mid at Epsom (impact value 1.24, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.24
54% rivals beaten · n=145

Mid draw

IV 1.14
49% rivals beaten · n=157

High draw

IV 0.96
48% rivals beaten · n=202
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read Tiger Held up, comes late
Stall 5 · Trainer Ian Williams · Jockey Edward Greatrex

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating
79 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 14%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 79
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
634642 last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 2)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 14%
2 Booziebrunch Races prominently
Stall 2 · Trainer S Woods · Jockey Tom Marquand

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating
76 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 76
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
2124431 last time ←
GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 4
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 1m 2f
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%
3 Hello Cotai Races prominently
Stall 1 · Trainer Jim Boyle · Jockey Jack Mitchell

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating
72 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 8% · Jockey 17%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 72
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
693613 last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 2f
CourseCourse winner — 2 from 5 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 17%
Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit
4 Show Biz Kid Held up, comes late
Stall 3 · Trainer Julia & Shelley Birkett · Jockey Dylan Hogan

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating
77 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 16% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 68
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
476415 last time ←
GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 8
DistanceHas won around 1m 2f — 2 from 14
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 12%
Drops in class (C4→C5)Stable hot (2/5, 40%)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
5 Perfect Scoundrel Races prominently
Stall 4 · Trainer Amanda Perrett · Jockey Robert Havlin

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating
74 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 13%
strike rate at Epsom
Last time out
RPR 69
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
448632 last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 5)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 13%

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.