Epsom · 5:45pm

Betfred 'The Classic Bookmaker' EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

Flat (Turf) 7f GOOD TO FIRM, Firm in places (GoingStick: 7.3) Class 3 2yo 5 runners

Clear read The Balearic Sun stands out on our figures.

Zarakova is the only confirmed front-runner and may be able to dictate a steady pace if left alone in front. Low draws are favoured at Epsom, with an impact value of 1.24 and a 54% average of beating rivals from those positions. The Balearic Sun stands out on recent figures (RPR 93), drops in class, and is lightly raced with scope to progress; he is likely to race mid-pack based on breeding and met trouble in running last time. Zarakova (RPR 79) is the main danger, while Ad Lib and Jaipur Prince are also expected to race from mid-division on pedigree.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Zarakova is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over mid at Epsom (impact value 1.24, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

The Balearic Sun is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Anyone well-treated?

The Balearic Sun drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

5Zarakova

Prominent 0

—

Mid-pack 4

3The Balearic Sun

1Ad Lib

2Jaipur Prince

4Palace Legacy

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 20%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over mid at Epsom (impact value 1.24, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.24

54% rivals beaten · n=145

Mid draw

IV 1.14

49% rivals beaten · n=157

High draw

IV 0.96

48% rivals beaten · n=202

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read The Balearic Sun Settles midfieldest

Stall 3 · Trainer Ralph Beckett · Jockey Hector Crouch

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 16% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

9 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.3% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 12%

Drops in class (C2→C3)Stable hot (14/47, 30%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

2 Zarakova Likely to lead

Stall 5 · Trainer Andrew Balding · Jockey Oisin Murphy

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 19%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 79

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

6 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 12.9% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 1)

FitnessFreshened up — 48 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 19%

3 Ad Lib Settles midfieldest

Stall 1 · Trainer Charlie Johnston · Jockey Jack Mitchell

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 17%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

—

most recent run

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 16.5% on firm

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 17%

4 Jaipur Prince Settles midfieldest

Stall 2 · Trainer Adam Kirby · Jockey Kieran Shoemark

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 10%

5 Palace Legacy Settles midfieldest

Stall 4 · Trainer James Tate · Jockey Tom Marquand

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 19% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

—

most recent run

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 18.2% on firm

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 19%, jockey 12%

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.