Navan win rate by stall & distance
Each row splits the draw into low, middle and high thirds relative to the field size, then shows how often each third actually wins. With no draw bias every third would win ~33%.
| Distance | Races | Low stalls win | Middle | High stalls win |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5f–6f (sprints) | 299 | 29% | 33% | 38% |
| 7f–8f (mile) | 97 | 27% | 33% | 40% |
| 9f–12f (middle) | 142 | 27% | 31% | 42% |
| 13f+ (staying) | 103 | 29% | 31% | 40% |
Green = a meaningful edge (≥6 points above the opposite third). Figures from our settled-results database, all Navan races with 8+ runners.
How to use this
If a distance shows a strong high- or low-draw edge, it's a genuine factor to weigh — a well-drawn horse gets a head start, a badly-drawn one needs to be good enough to overcome it. Our model already bakes draw into every Navan selection, so you don't have to: see today's Navan tips, or the full Navan form guide.
Why trust these numbers
This isn't a pundit's hunch. It's every Navan race in our database, settled from official results, recomputed automatically. The same engine that measures this draw bias scores every runner at Navan each morning — logged before the off, win or lose, on our public track record.