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Home › Data Studies › Newmarket Guineas Festival 2027: The Data & Trends

Newmarket Guineas Festival 2027: The Data & Trends

Optima Racing data desk · 2026-06-18 · based on UK & Irish results 2015–2026

the Guineas Festival is the meeting everyone bets on and almost nobody researches properly. We analysed all 430 races at Newmarket in the festival window across 11 years (2015–2026) — here are the trainers, jockeys and market patterns that actually repeat.

Across 11 years, the favourite won 30% of races at the meeting — and the gap between the most and least reliable years is enormous (see the year-by-year table). Blind favourite-backing is no plan here.

Trainers with the best record at the meeting

TrainerRunsWinsSR
Charlie Appleby1734827.7%
Richard Hannon1992311.6%
Andrew Balding1392014.4%
Mark Johnston1041615.4%
William Haggas931415.1%
Roger Varian901314.4%
Sir Michael Stoute551120.0%
Stuart Williams821113.4%
A P OBrien431023.3%
Michael Bell671014.9%

Jockeys with the best record

JockeyRunsWinsSR
William Buick1874926.2%
Ryan Moore1141815.8%
James Doyle1321813.6%
Silvestre De Sousa1011817.8%
Oisin Murphy1211613.2%
Tom Marquand1021514.7%
Jim Crowley741317.6%
Jamie Spencer821214.6%
David Egan941111.7%
Joe Fanning791012.7%

The favourite's record, year by year

YearRacesFavourite SR
20263815.8%
20254325.6%
20244228.6%
20234531.1%
20222825.0%
20214431.8%
20193534.3%
20183636.1%
20173528.6%
20163542.9%
20154934.7%
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The biggest shocks

The meeting's largest-priced winners in our window: Billesdon Brook (GB) (50/1, 2018), Ziggys Phoenix (IRE) (50/1, 2024), Grey Britain (GB) (50/1, 2018), Dancinginthewoods (GB) (50/1, 2019), Company Minx (IRE) (50/1, 2021), Outbox (GB) (50/1, 2024). Outsiders land every single year — which is exactly why our model rates every runner rather than following the market.

Going into the 2027 meeting

When the 2027 the Guineas Festival arrives, our model publishes a rated pick for every race before the off — no race skipped, every result logged win or lose. Start here:

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Data: all races at Newmarket in the festival month(s), 2015–2026, our settled-results database (430 races). Trends describe the past, not the future. 18+.

We score every UK & Irish runner on this kind of data — every morning.

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Data: official UK & Irish results, 2015–2026. Historical patterns are not a guarantee of future results. 18+ · BeGambleAware.