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HomeData Studies › Epsom Derby Festival 2027: 11 Years of Trends

Epsom Derby Festival 2027: 11 Years of Trends

Optima Racing data desk · 2026-06-18 · based on UK & Irish results 2015–2026

the Epsom Derby meeting is the meeting everyone bets on and almost nobody researches properly. We analysed all 157 races at Epsom in the festival window across 11 years (2015–2026) — here are the trainers, jockeys and market patterns that actually repeat.

Across 11 years, the favourite won 23% of races at the meeting — and the gap between the most and least reliable years is enormous (see the year-by-year table). Blind favourite-backing is no plan here.

Trainers with the best record at the meeting

TrainerRunsWinsSR
A P OBrien711014.1%
Andrew Balding75912.0%
Richard Hannon59610.2%
Roger Varian31619.4%
Mark Johnston5459.3%
Charlie Appleby34411.8%
John Gosden25416.0%
Richard Fahey5147.8%
Ian Williams3738.1%
David OMeara4736.4%

Jockeys with the best record

JockeyRunsWinsSR
Oisin Murphy891314.6%
Ryan Moore701115.7%
Silvestre De Sousa701115.7%
William Buick61914.8%
Frankie Dettori35925.7%
Andrea Atzeni42511.9%
Hollie Doyle5347.5%
James Doyle4149.8%
Tom Marquand4337.0%
Adam Kirby26311.5%

The favourite's record, year by year

YearRacesFavourite SR
20261618.8%
20251533.3%
2024812.5%
2023156.7%
20222025.0%
20211421.4%
2019714.3%
20181435.7%
20171421.4%
20162035.0%
20151428.6%
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The biggest shocks

The meeting's largest-priced winners in our window: Bowman (IRE) (50/1, 2022), Qualify (IRE) (50/1, 2015), Wings Of Eagles (FR) (33/1, 2017), Ornate (GB) (33/1, 2019), Solent Gateway (IRE) (25/1, 2021), Ecureuil Secret (FR) (25/1, 2025). Outsiders land every single year — which is exactly why our model rates every runner rather than following the market.

Going into the 2027 meeting

When the 2027 the Epsom Derby meeting arrives, our model publishes a rated pick for every race before the off — no race skipped, every result logged win or lose. Start here:

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Data: all races at Epsom in the festival month(s), 2015–2026, our settled-results database (157 races). Trends describe the past, not the future. 18+.

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Data: official UK & Irish results, 2015–2026. Historical patterns are not a guarantee of future results. 18+ · BeGambleAware.