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HomeData Studies › Cheltenham Festival 2027: 11 Years of Trends & Data

Cheltenham Festival 2027: 11 Years of Trends & Data

Optima Racing data desk · 2026-06-18 · based on UK & Irish results 2015–2026

Cheltenham Festival is the meeting everyone bets on and almost nobody researches properly. We analysed all 334 races at Cheltenham in the festival window across 11 years (2015–2026) — here are the trainers, jockeys and market patterns that actually repeat.

Across 11 years, the favourite won 30% of races at the meeting — and the gap between the most and least reliable years is enormous (see the year-by-year table). Blind favourite-backing is no plan here.

Trainers with the best record at the meeting

TrainerRunsWinsSR
W P Mullins7328812.0%
Gordon Elliott427388.9%
Nicky Henderson314278.6%
Henry De Bromhead2332410.3%
Paul Nicholls229167.0%
Dan Skelton167137.8%
Gavin Cromwell76911.8%
Ben Pauling7756.5%
Joseph Patrick OBrien8344.8%
David Pipe8544.7%

Jockeys with the best record

JockeyRunsWinsSR
Paul Townend1894121.7%
R Walsh761823.7%
Rachael Blackmore1141815.8%
Nico de Boinville1181714.4%
Mark Walsh1251612.8%
Davy Russell1101210.9%
Harry Skelton1201210.0%
Jack Kennedy121129.9%
Barry Geraghty791215.2%
Mr J J Codd34823.5%

The favourite's record, year by year

YearRacesFavourite SR
20262828.6%
20252828.6%
20242729.6%
20232828.6%
20222842.9%
20212828.6%
20202828.6%
20192832.1%
20182828.6%
20172821.4%
20162835.7%
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The biggest shocks

The meeting's largest-priced winners in our window: Poniros (GB) (50/1, 2025), Jeff Kidder (IRE) (50/1, 2021), Croco Bay (IRE) (50/1, 2019), It Came To Pass (IRE) (50/1, 2020), Martator (FR) (50/1, 2026), Premier Magic (IRE) (50/1, 2023). Outsiders land every single year — which is exactly why our model rates every runner rather than following the market.

Going into the 2027 meeting

When the 2027 Cheltenham Festival arrives, our model publishes a rated pick for every race before the off — no race skipped, every result logged win or lose. Start here:

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Data: all races at Cheltenham in the festival month(s), 2015–2026, our settled-results database (334 races). Trends describe the past, not the future. 18+.

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Data: official UK & Irish results, 2015–2026. Historical patterns are not a guarantee of future results. 18+ · BeGambleAware.